Why #Millennials Won’t Decide Florida’s GOP or Democratic Presidential Primaries

According to the latest numbers (January 31, 2016), 17.5% of Florida’s electorate is under the age of 30. Yet younger voters will have little say in who either the Republican or Democratic presidential nominees will be in the state’s March 15, 2016 primary election.

As of today, voters under 30 have cast less than 3% of absentee ballots and less than 4% of the early in-person votes.

Of course, the lack of participation by millennials in the Republican and Democratic primaries is in large part a function of younger voters disproportionately registering as No Party Affiliates (NPAs) in the Sunshine State.  Over 1/3 of voters under the age of 30 in Florida have no say in either presidential primary.  That’s because among the under-30 crowd, 35.5% are registered as NPAs.

Compare this figure to those who are between 30 and 60 years old, where 26.3% are registered as NPAs.  And what about Floridians over the age of 60? Only 16.9% of the 60+ crowd are registered as NPAs.

So, if you don’t identify with a party in Florida, you don’t get a say in who’s going to be the parties’ nominees. Not only are older Floridians are more partisan, they’re allowed to participate in party primaries, whereas over a third of younger registered voters may not.

So much for the influence of #MillennialVoters

Hot off the presses: “Casting and Verifying Provisional Ballots in Florida” in SSQ @WileyPoliitcs

“Casting and Verifying Provisional Ballots in Florida,” Social Science Quarterly

Thessalia Merivaki, University of Florida
Daniel A. Smith, University of Florida

Objective. Some scholars report that the partisanship of local election administrators affects which voters will cast provisional ballots and which ballots will be rejected, raising serious questions about voting rights and the application of uniform election laws within the American states. Our goal is to demonstrate that casting a provisional ballot and rejecting a provisional ballot are separate processes, the discrete dynamics of which have not been adequately assessed empirically. Methods. Drawing on a county-level data set spanning three general elections in the battleground state of Florida, we look beyond the partisanship of local elections administrators, focusing instead on how voter registration issues in local election jurisdictions may condition both the casting and rejection of provisional ballots. Results. Our findings suggest that voter registration maintenance  i issues in a county affect the number of provisional ballots cast and rejected. Most importantly, we find that counties with greater numbers of voters who register after the registration cutoff date prior to a general election (and who are thus ineligible to vote) tend to have greater numbers of provisional ballots cast and rejected. Conclusions. Provisional ballots are the stepchildren of local election administration. Voters deemed by poll workers to be ineligible to vote a regular ballot are permitted to cast provisional ballots; these ballots are verified by local canvassing boards after the election results are tabulated and the unofficial winners declared. We find that the partisan leanings of local elections officials play a minimal role in the number of provisional ballots cast and rejected, which we hope will encourage scholars to scrutinize other local factors that might cause disparities in these votes of last resort.

 

And here’s the link: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ssqu.12245/abstract

Where are Florida’s #MillennialVoters?

In Florida, 17.5% of the electorate is under the age of 30. Yet younger voters have cast less than 3% of absentee ballots to date and less than 4% of early in-person votes cast.

Not surprisingly, older voters are over-performing with their turnout rates. According to the January 2016 voter file, 34.5% of the electorate is 60 or over. Yet older voters account for 71% of the absentee & 63% of the EIP votes cast thus far.

So much for the surge of #MillennialVoters

Who’s voting Early In-Person in Florida? Racial & Ethnic Totals

Here’s the racial/ethnic breakdown by party for the first day of early in-person voting in Florida.

Of the 8,377 Democrats who have cast EIP, 52% are white, 31% are black, and 13% are Hispanic.  Some 1,666 Democrats in Hillsborough County have cast EIP ballots, 57% of them white, 29% of them black, and 10% Hispanic. In Miami-Dade, whites have cast 37% of the EIP Democratic ballots, blacks 34%, and Hispanics 26%. In Duval County, with 1,439 EIP Democratic ballots cast, blacks have cast 49% and whites 45%. And finally, in Orange County, 47% of the EIP Democratic ballots cast thus far are white voters, 28% are black, and 18% are Hispanic.

Among Republicans, of the 9,354 Republicans who have cast EIP, 81% are white, 1% are black, and 15% are Hispanic. In Miami-Dade, where Republicans have cast 1,543 EIP ballots, 68% have been cast by Hispanics, and only 28% by whites. In Hillsborough County, where the most EIP ballots have been cast by Republicans (1,757), 89% of the ballots cast thus far are by whites. White Republicans casting EIP votes in Duval make up an even greater share of the 1,511 votes cast, some 94% of the total. In Orange County, 10% of the EIP votes by Republicans were by Hispanic voters, with white voters comprising 85% of the total (1,385) EIP votes cast on the first day of early voting.

Early In-Person Voting Alive & Well in Florida

Over 18,000 voters cast ballots in the 17 counties that offered Early In-Person voting on Monday, February 29, 2016 in Florida ahead of the 2016 PPP.

9,354 Republicans and 8,377 Democrats came out to early voting centers, along with a smattering of NPAs and Independents (who did not get to vote for any of the Democratic or Republican presidential nominees) and slightly more than 100 voters who registered after the January 31, 2016 voter file was released.

Here’s the partisan breakdown for the top EIP tallies by county to date:

County GOP EIP Dem EIP Tot GOP & Dem EIP
HIL 1,757 1,666 3,423
DAD 1,543 1,969 3,512
DUV 1,511 1,439 2,950
ORA 1,385 1,623 3,008
LAK 984 623 1,607
SAN 750 201 951
POL 373 237 610
CHA 320 144 464
BAK 185 51 236
MON 177 147 324