As of this morning (March 9, 2016), over 1.41 million Floridians (out of the 13.2m registered) have cast ballots in the 2016 presidential primaries, with 994.9k voting absentee mail ballots and 417.1k voting early in-person.
Thus far, 772.8m Republicans and 598.8k Democrats have voted in advance of the March 15 election. That’s nearly 17% of registered Republicans (active and inactive) and 11.9% of registered Democrats (active and inactive) as of February 1, 2016. Roughly seven out of 10 Republicans and Democrats who have voted have cast absentee ballots, with 30% voting in-person. In addition, some 1.7k absentee voters and another 2.9k early in-person have voted, but registered between February 1 and February 16, 2016, the last day to register to vote in the PPP election.
Thus far, Republican absentee and in-person voters look remarkably similar along racial/ethnic lines. Of the 543.3k Republicans who have voted absentee ballots, 86% are white and slightly less than 11% are Hispanic. Of the 229.5k Republicans who have voted early in-person ballots, 87% are white and slightly less than 10% are Hispanic.
Of the 423.6k Democrats who have voted absentee ballots, 70% are white, roughly 17% are black, and less than 10% are Hispanic. Of the 175.3k Democrats who have voted early in-person ballots, 59% are white, 26% are black, and slightly more than 10% are Hispanic.
In terms of turnout, nearly 17% of registered Republicans have voted to date: 17.5% of white Republicans and nearly 16% of Hispanic Republicans have voted thus far.
Slightly less than 12% of registered Democrats have voted. Among Democrats, 15.6% of white Democrats, 8.2% of black Democrats, and nearly 8% of Hispanic Democrats have voted to date.
The overall turnout rate in the state is 10.7%. The reason it is so much lower than the Republican and Democratic turnout, of course, is because NPAs are shut out from voting in either the Democratic or Republican PPPs. And it shows: less than 1% of of the state’s 3.25m registered NPAs have voted in this election.
Finally, it needs to be noted (once again), that #Millennials are not turning out thus far. Only 2.6% of voters under the age of 30 have voted; in contrast 20.5% of the state’s voters over the age of 60 have voted.
By party, 4.6% of the 578.0k Republicans under 30 years have voted; 3.7% of the 847.5k Democrats under 30 years old have voted.
In contrast, 28% of the 1.86m registered Republicans over 60 have voted and 21.7% of the 1.80m registered Democrats over 60 have voted.
As I’ve written before, at this point, it’s hard to see how #Millennials are going to decide either the Republican or Democratic presidential primaries in Florida. Too many millennials — some 819k — are registered as NPAs and as thus have no voice.