Calling all Boleteros…

or, better yet, Floridians, just forget about the ballot-brokers and mail in your absentee ballots.

As of this morning, more than 685k absentee ballots have yet to be returned to the state’s 67 Supervisors of Elections.
Roughly 328k Republican and 326k Democratic absentee ballots are presumably sitting on the kitchen table waiting to be filled out and sent on their merry way.
Which counties should the campaigns be chasing absentees?
Pinellas, Miami-Dade, Broward, Orange, Hillsborough, and Palm Beach account for half of all the outstanding absentee ballots, with similar numbers of Republicans and Democrats.
Expect to see more rallies by the candidates in the coming days in these ballot-rich counties, not just to mobilize voters to the polls during in-person early voting and on Election Day, but to round up the more than half a million absentee ballots out on the lam.

Another ElectionSmith Exclusive: Over 10,000 Absentee Ballots Cast in Florida are in Jeopardy of being Rejected

Of the 1.09m absentee ballots processed by the state’s 67 SOEs as of this morning (Friday, March 11, 2016), nearly 5.6k have a “voter error” and another 4.6k don’t have a signature on the back of the return envelope.  That’s about 1% of all absentee ballots cast. Republican absentee voters have a slightly higher voter error rate than Democratic absentee voters, and the reverse is true for those received by SOEs without signatures.

Absentee ballots with a voter error will be evaluated by county canvassing boards as they are processed, so some of them may be approved as valid votes. Voters who have cast absentee ballots without signatures have until 5pm on Monday to “cure” their absentee ballot envelope.

Official details here:



What about those Florida Overseas and Military Ballot?

Here’s one more EXCLUSIVE…

To date, there are nearly 685.8k absentee ballots that have been delivered by SOEs that have yet to be returned.  Voters may no longer request an absentee ballot to be mailed to them by their SOE.  Campaigns are likely tracking these down and reminding voters to mail them back in. At least, let’s hope what they’re doing, and not engaging in illegal activities (like this). There are several strict regulations now in place regarding on who may handle absentee ballots when they are being delivered, and the Miami-Dade SOE has a nice pdf with those rules.

Of the 685.6k absentees awaiting to be returned, 16k have been sent to military voters, with nearly 2k mailed to overseas military personnel. More than 2x as many of these military overseas ballots were mailed to registered Republicans than Democrats.

In Florida, it’s the final countdown…Latest turnout figures

It’s Friday, March 11, 2016.

As of this morning, nearly 1.68m Floridians have cast ballots, including 1.09m absentee ballots and 588.6k early in-person ballots.

There are only 1 1/2 days of early in-person voting left for voters in 58 of the state’s 67 counties. The nine other counties will have eight hours of early voting on Sunday, March 13. After that, voters can cast their ballots on Election Day from 7am-7pm, or get their absentee ballots to their Supervisor of Elections by 7pm on that Tuesday, March 15.

As of this morning, Republicans have cast nearly 610k absentee ballots and 327k early in-person ballots. For their part, Democrats have cast over 456.5k absentee ballots and 244k early in-person ballots.

Here’s a tidbit of strategic voting going on… Some 6,000+ voters who cast requested and voted absentee ballots in the GOP presidential primary switched their party registration to Republican during the first 16 days of February. Most of them were NPAs, but a good chunk were Democrats.  Among those Democrats who cast absentee ballots, more than 3,000 switched their registration to the Democratic party immediately before the registration deadline, including over 2,ooo NPAs and more than a few Republicans.  I’m writing on this subject, so visit again in a couple of years when I finally post an academic paper on the topic of party switching!

For now, if you want the racial/ethnic and age demographics by party of those who have already voted early in-person or by absentee ballot, as well as the percentages of Republicans who skipped the 2012 PPP but who are voting this round, take a look at my previous (and now somewhat dated) posts.  Sorry, but I’m no longer posting these breakdowns publicly, as too many of you have been using them without citing my efforts. But I’m happy to continue to make them available to those of you who work them into your stories. Just DM me on Twitter.