Archives for the day of: March 12, 2016

Through Friday, over 1.8m Floridians have voted.

Over 754k Democrats have voted either early in-person or absentee mail ballots.

Nearly 1.03m Republicans have cast early in-person and absentee mail ballots.

Among registered Democrats, 11% of blacks, 10% of Hispanics, and 19% of whites have turned out.

Among registered Republicans, 20% of registered Hispanics and 23% of registered whites have voted.

Another 46k NPAs have cast ballots, but they can’t vote in either party’s PPP.

I won’t have demographic data on the 5200 early voters who cast ballots who registered between Feb 1 and Feb 16, the last day to register or change party affiliation in Florida, until after the weekend. Roughly 1k newly registered Democrats and 1.3k newly registered Republicans cast absentee ballots, which are included in the above totals.

I may post county and age breakdowns later tonight. Stay tuned.






As of this morning, 59.3k Miami-Dade Republicans have had their absentee ballots counted by the SOE. That’s out of 87.9k GOP absentee ballots sent out to registered voters beginning in earnest in late January.  So, 67.5% of all absentee ballots are already in the hopper, ready to be counted on Election Day.

More than 450 absentee envelope mailed in by Miami-Dade Republicans don’t have the voter’s signature; another 500+ have some form of voter error, and the canvasing board will take a look at them to determine if they’re valid or should be rejected.

The most important number, and the one that Donald Trump is likely referencing, is the 25.6k absentee ballots of registered Republicans that have yet to be sent in as of this morning’s figures. Certainly, there’s a history of absentee ballot fraud in Miami-Dade, as @MarcACaputo @PatriciaMazzei know well.

As of Friday morning, nearly 700k Democrats had cast ballots ahead of Florida’s PPP.  Roughly 18% of white Democrats have already voted; less than 10% of registered black and Hispanic Democrats have cast ballots.

On the Republican side of the ledger, over 934k have cast ballots. More than 1/5 registered white Republicans have voted; Hispanic Republicans are also voting in sizable numbers, with 18.5% of those registered having cast ballots.

Another 4.2k voters who registered in the final two weeks before the February 16 registration cutoff have voted, but we won’t know their party registration or race/ethnicity until a later time.

Are #Millennials voting? So far, no sign of them. They have until Sunday in 9 counties to vote early in-person or until Election Day to get their absentee ballots in, or, of course, turn out to their designated precincts on March 15.

Fewer than 5% of Democrats who are under 30 (as of February 1, 2016) have voted. Less than 3% of the more than 326k black Democrats under the age of 30 have voted; a slightly higher percentage of the 170k under 30 Hispanic Democrats have voted, some 4.7%. Nearly 25% of registered Democrats 60 and over have voted, with older black and white Democrats leading the way.

On the Republican side, over 34% of white Republicans 60 and up have already voted. Older Hispanic Republicans are right behind, with 31% of those registered having voted. Fewer than 6% of Republicans under the age of 30 have voted, with younger Hispanic Republicans outpacing younger white Republicans.  #NeverTrump voters, perhaps? If so, it’s less than 5k votes, hardly a counter-punch to rapidly approaching million votes cast by Republicans to date.


%d bloggers like this: