2.09m votes already cast in Florida as polls opened this morning. Party, Race/Ethnicity, Age Breakdowns here:

When precincts opened their doors this morning at 7am, more than 2.09m Floridians had already cast their ballots.

Nearly 1.17m out of the 4.56m active and inactive registered Republicans in the state had cast early in-person or absentee ballots ahead of Election Day, or 25.6% of all registered Republicans.

Nearly 865k out of the 5.04m active and inactive registered Democrats in the state had cast early in-person or absentee ballots ahead of Election Day, or 17.2% of all registered Democrats.

An additional 52.8k NPAs and 3rd party registrants cast ballots (but not for the GOP or Democratic nominees), as did another 3.6k (out of the 28.9k) who registered to vote between February 1 and February 16, the last day to register to vote in the presidential preference primary election.

Older voters in both parties came out in force.  739.3k (63%) of all Republican ballots cast prior to Election Day were cast by voters 60 and older. 514.5k (59%) of all Democratic ballots cast prior to Election Day were cast by voters 60 and older.Only 50.3k Republican and 59.8k Democrats under the age of 30 voted during the early voting period or by absentee ballot.

Sliced differently, only 8.7% of all registered Republicans under 30 and only 7% of all registered Democrats under 30 have voted prior to Election Day, whereas nearly 40% of all registered Republicans over 60 and 29% of all registered Democrats over 60 cast ballots ahead of today, March 15, 2016.

What about the partisan breakdown along racial/ethnic lines?

Slightly more than 1m white Republicans have cast ballots, nearly ten times the 119.5k Hispanic Republicans who voted early in-person and absentee.

Among Democratic early and absentee voters, 547k are white,86.9k are Hispanic, and 191.5k are black.





Exclusive: Latest Presidential Primary Vote Totals in Florida

As of this morning, which accounts for all early in-person ballots cast through the final day (Sunday, March 13) of early voting as well as all absentee ballots processed by the state’s 67 SOEs this morning, over 2 million votes have been cast ahead of Florida’s 2016 presidential preference primaries.  Roughly 2.038m, to be more precise.

Over 1.136m Republicans have voted, including 657.1k absentee ballots and 479.2k early in-person voters.

Nearly 846.8k Democrats have voted, including 481.1k absentee ballots and 365.7k early in-person voters..

Not surprisingly, Florida’s electorate is old. Over 61.5% of the total votes cast have been by voters over the age of 60.  Less than 6% of the total votes cast (GOP, Dem, and NPA/3rd parties) have cast by voters under the age of 30.

White Republicans over the age of 60 still dominate the GOP presidential primary electorate: over 635k white Republicans have cast ballots, or nearly 65% of the total Republican ballots cast thus far. Hispanics registered as Republicans have cast a total of 117.3k ballots, or roughly 10% of the total Republican votes cast.

On the Democratic side, older white voters also make up a majority of those who have voted in advance of tomorrow’s election. White Democrats have cast 535.9k ballots, or 63% of all Democratic ballots cast thus far.  Of those 535.9k ballots cast by white Democrats, nearly 67% have been cast by voters over the age of 60.  Hispanics registered as Democrats have cast 85.3k ballots (10%), and blacks registered as Democrats have cast nearly 187.0k ballots (22%).

Be very weary of pollsters who haven’t been weighting their early votes (early in-person and absentee) by these figures. They might be heavily #Skewed.

Exclusive Breakdown of Florida’s 1.125m Republican Votes Cast, By Race/Ethnicity

As of this morning, more than 1.125m Floridians have cast ballots in the GOP presidential preference primary.

Here’s the breakdown by race/ethnicity:

971.6k white Republicans have already voted; that’s 86.3% of the total votes cast in the GOP PPP. Thus far, 112.6k Republican Hispanics have voted, or 10% of the total.

Overall, 24.5% of registered Republicans (active and inactive) have already voted.

The overall 1.125m Republican ballots cast to date includes 484.6k voters who did not participate in the 2012 PPP, or 43% of the vote total.  Nearly 85% of these voters who didn’t bother (as well as some who weren’t registered) to vote in 2012 in the primary are white.

The overall GOP total votes cast also includes 3.5k of the party’s 307k  inactive voters; 73% are white and 22% are Hispanic.

One last demographic breakdown for the GOP voters who’ve voted early in-person or by absentee ballot: they’re old.  Nearly 64% of votes cast by registered Republicans in Florida’s PPP are at least 60 years of age.  Slightly more than 4% — only 46k voters — are under 30.  Of that younger GOP crowd, 80% are white.

Draw your own conclusions…


Exclusive: 1.98 million votes cast in Florida; Over 25k Last Minuite Party-Switchers

As of this morning, 1.98m early in-person and absentee ballots have been cast in Florida.  Early voting is now complete in Florida, and these totals include all early in-person ballots cast in Florida (except for those cast in the 9 counties that extended the option to voters today) as well as absentee ballots received as of this morning.

Over 1.125m Republicans have cast absentee and early in-person ballots.  Of the 4.59m registered Republicans (active and inactive), 24.5% have voted.

Over 824.4m Democrats have cast  absentee and early in-person ballots.  Of the 5.05m registered Democrats (active and inactive), 16.3% have voted.

The balance of votes have been cast by NPAs and those registered with 3rd parties.

These early vote totals include last-minute party-switchers and new registrants.

The Democrats picked up more than 4k Floridians who registered in the final two weeks prior to the February 16 book closing and who have already voted in the Democratic PPP primary. But the total also includes nearly 10k registered voters who switched to the Democratic Party in the final two weeks before the cutoff date, including nearly 6.9k NPAs and 1.9k previously registered Republicans.

Republicans picked up more than 4.8k new registrants during the final two weeks who have already voted, but also added 15k previously registered Floridians who switched their party registrations, including 7.7k NPAs.

Is this party-switching registration during the final two weeks prior to the book closing on February 16 evidence of strategic voting?  Likely so. (I’ll be digging into this in greater detail for a forthcoming academic paper).


Exclusive: Where are the Un-returned Absentee Ballots in Florida?

More than 1.12m Floridians have cast valid absentee mail ballots, including 462.5k Democrats and 626.8k Republicans.

But more than 607k absentee ballots mailed out by the 67 county SOEs to Democratic and Republican voters have yet to be returned by voters.

As of yesterday morning, there were nearly 300k Republican absentee ballots that need to reach SOE offices by close of business on Tuesday, and over 308k Democratic absentee ballots that had yet to arrive at SOE offices.

Here’s the number of absentee ballots provided, by not returned, by county, to date:

Absentee Ballots Provided, Not Returned
County Republican Democrat
ALA 2,530 3,393
BAK 210 221
BAY 2,655 1,712
BRA 288 370
BRE 14,157 10,531
BRO 16,491 31,632
CAL 74 218
CHA 3,250 2,368
CIT 2,668 2,016
CLA 3,299 1,161
CLL 6,911 2,619
CLM 593 646
DAD 25,354 33,115
DES 191 230
DIX 153 296
DUV 12,979 11,089
ESC 5,424 3,094
FLA 1,286 955
FRA 144 296
GAD 194 1,194
GIL 240 225
GLA 75 49
GUL 143 158
HAM 105 252
HAR 88 72
HEN 188 247
HER 2,913 3,142
HIG 1,287 847
HIL 20,402 22,104
HOL 247 274
IND 3,493 1,638
JAC 372 687
JEF 118 367
LAF 39 111
LAK 4,672 2,907
LEE 14,842 8,609
LEO 2,760 4,111
LEV 799 516
LIB 16 100
MAD 83 208
MAN 8,140 4,798
MON 1,847 1,570
MRN 4,227 2,329
MRT 4,036 2,096
NAS 1,466 716
OKA 4,160 1,126
OKE 266 239
ORA 15,493 30,910
OSC 3,420 6,157
PAL 13,872 20,319
PAS 6,405 6,285
PIN 35,143 36,545
POL 8,947 8,804
PUT 669 935
SAN 3,175 1,114
SAR 7,902 4,876
SEM 8,164 7,144
STJ 3,706 1,552
STL 3,365 4,657
SUM 1,996 968
SUW 488 715
TAY 184 479
UNI 113 141
VOL 8,808 8,597
WAK 268 452
WAL 918 298
WAS 402 447
Total 299,313 308,049

Writing a story and interested in the partisan and racial/ethnic breakdowns of the un-returned absentee ballots for a particular county? Feel free to contact me directly.