Exclusive Racial/Ethnic Breakdown of 2016 Early Votes Cast (EIP & VBM) in Florida, with 2012 Comparisons

Here are the latest figures I’ve calculated by linking the statewide September 30, 2016 voter file with daily Early In-Person and Vote-by-Mail returns, and comparing these figures with data from 2012 at the same point in time (that is, through Sunday, October 30, 2016, and Sunday, October 28, 2012).

Note, that in 2012, there were only two days of early in-person voting at this juncture (Saturday, October 27 and Sunday, October 28), whereas in 2016, some 50 counties have had at least 7 days of EIP, and all 67 counties have had at least two day (Saturday, October 29 and yesterday, Sunday October 30).

I’ve tweeted and blogged earlier today about the trends, and spoken to about a dozen reporters today, so dig around if you want my interpretation.


Hispanic Turnout is the the Big Story in Florida…

The presidential election (and the US Senate, too) in Florida will be decided by Hispanic turnout.

Hispanics now comprise 15.6% of the state’s 12.7m active registered voters; in 2012, Hispanics comprised 13.6% of the Sunshine State’s voter rolls.

So far, as of yesterday, October 29, 2016, Hispanic voters are comprising a considerably higher percentage of voters than they did at this point in time in 2012, far exceeding their 2% point share of registered voters.

Here’s the Hispanic share of total votes cast (VBM & EIP) by all voters, 9 days out from election day, in 2016 vs. 2012.

Percentage of all Vote-by-Mail (VBM) ballots cast by Hispanics:

2016 =  12.9%
2012 = 9.5%

Percentage of all Early In-Person (EIP) ballots cast by Hispanics:

2016 = 14.2%
2012 = 9.9%