Well, judging by Vote-by-Mail ballots received by county Supervisors of Elections, it certainly looks like there’s going to be strong voter turnout in Florida this presidential election.
As of this morning, Democrats have returned nearly 125k vote-by-mail ballots, only 6,000 ballots less than Republicans, who have owned absentee ballots in the Sunshine State since the state adopted the no-excuse mode of voting.
Election Day in 2012 was November 6; this year, it’s November 8. As such, if we compare October 11, 2012 absentee ballots received with October 13, 2016 vote-by-mail absentee ballots received, Republicans are up only 34.7k from 2012; Democrats are up 36.3k ballots compared to October 11, 2012 returns. Also notable is that over 8k more ballots from No Party Affiliates (NPAs) have been received by the 67 county SOEs than over the same time-frame in 1012.
Still way too early to draw too many conclusions — most notably because it’s possible that Democrats who are voting by mail this year may have been voting early in-person or on Election Day in 2012, and are merely substituting one mode of voting for another.
But I’ll have that analysis in the coming days…