Way too early to compare early in-person voting in FL with 2012 EIP…but here’s 2008 numbers

There were only 8 days of EIP in 2012 in FL, after the Republican legislature cut the number of days with HB 1355 in 2013 from 14 days. The 2013, the legislature reversed course after the 2012 November election meltdown which had people waiting in line for over 6 hours to cast early votes, and expanded the number of days and hours SOEs could offer EIP.

Michael Herron and I have an article in Poltical Research Quarterly on the effects, which was cited in an article by Micahel Wines in The New York Times today.

Here’s the daily compositional breakdown of early in-person voting by race in 2008. That year, 10 counties offered the full 14 days of early voting; the rest offered a minimum of 8 days.


This year, 50/67 counties started EIP on the first available Monday.  I’ll have analysis of EIP in FL in the coming days.

Another ElectionSmith Exclusive

Of the 1.1m Floridians who have cast vote-by-mail ballots that have been received by the state’s 67 SOEs through yesterday (Friday, 22 October 2016), nearly half (46%) did not vote an absentee ballot in the 2012 General Election.

In fact, of the 1.1m VBM cast thus far, 215.6k didn’t vote in the 2012 GE at all. So, one out of five VBMs received by SOEs are from voters who didn’t participate in the 2012 GE.

Of the new VBM voters, some 35k registered to vote in 2016, including 5,312 who’ve registered since September 1, 2016.

More Democrats than Republicans who’ve already cast a VBM either skipped or registered subsequent to the November 6, 2012 GE.  82.7k Democrats (18.7%) and 76.5k Republicans (16.5%) have not voted for president since at least 2008, if ever.

As I’ve noted elsewhere, though, the big surge in VBM in 2016 in Florida is with No Party Affiliates.  Nearly 51k of the 172.7k NPAs who have cast VBMs so far are voting for the first time (or at least since 2008).

So, who are these newbie NPAs who didn’t vote in 2012?

Nearly 18% are Hispanic, but that’s below the 22% of all NPAs in the voter file who are Hispanic (as of September 1, 2016).   Over 68% of the NPAs who’ve voted a VBM ballot but  who didn’t vote in 2012 are white, well above the 59% of all NPAs in the voter file who are white.

However, a greater percentage of VBM voters who didn’t vote in 2012  (compared to those who voted in 2012) are Hispanic and a smaller percentage are white.

So, lots of new voters are casting mail ballots for the first time. The demographics look pretty comparable to VBM voters who cast ballots by this mode in 2012.

Of course, lots of VBM (and early-in-person and Election Day) ballots to come…