Explaining Trump’s Win in Florida: 10 Election Myths & Realities

Look forward to joining USF’s Dr. Susan MacManus tonight at the Bob Graham Center at Pugh Hall, University of Florida, for our Election Recap.

Should be Live Streaming here.

Monday, November 14, 2016 – 6:00 pm

Two of Florida’s most prominent political commentators, Susan MacManus and Dan Smith, will discuss the results and implications of the 2016 elections at the Bob Graham Center on Monday, Nov. 14 at 6 p.m. in Pugh Hall.

Dr. Susan MacManus, Florida’s most-quoted political scientist, is a Distinguished University Professor at the University of South Florida in the Department of Government and International Affairs. Since 2008, she has been a featured columnist on sayfiereview.com—a widely-read Florida-based political website. MacManus has appeared as a panelist on WFLA TV’s Road to the White House program which was nominated for a Suncoast Emmy award in 2008. Aside from authoring numerous books, she has also appeared on every major cable television and radio network and has been interviewed by several major newspapers in Florida, the U.S., and abroad.

Dr. Daniel Smith is a University of Florida Research Foundation (2010-2012) Professor of Political Science at the University of Florida. He is fundamentally interested in how political institutions affect political behavior across the United States. He has published more than eighty scholarly articles and numerous books on the politics and process of direct democracy and voting rights and elections in the U.S.

An ElectionSmith Exclusive: 1.44m out of the 6.42m Floridians who Cast EIP or VBM Ballots DID NOT Vote in 2012. Who are they? Party, Race/Ethnicity Details here..

Here’s the race/ethnic share of the 549k Democrats, 588k Republicans, 272k NPAs, and 35k 3rd party voters who didn’t vote in 2012 but who cast ballots ahead of Election Day.

Dem Rep NPA 3rd Total
Other 5.0 3.2 9.3 4.19 5.1
Black 23.2 0.87 5.7 3.9 10.3
Hisp. 18.5 12.9 25.8 10.2 17.4
White 53.3 83.1 59.2 81.8 67.2
Total 100 100 100 100 100

And inversely, here’s party breakdown for the 73k other, 149k blacks, 251k Hispanics, and 970k whites who’ve already voted but who didn’t vote in 2012..

Dem Rep NPA 3rd Total
Other 37.9 25.4 34.8 2.0 100
Black 85.3 3.4 10.4 0.9 100
Hisp. 40.5 30.2 27.9 1.4 100
White 30.1 50.4 16.6 3.0 100
Total 38.0 40.7 18.8 2.4 100

 

Most importantly, here’s the breakdown of the analysis of the Florida electorate that I’ll be crunching tomorrow…

Heading into Election Day, over 6.4m Early Votes have been Cast in Florida. Here’s the Race/Ethnicity and Party Breakdown by Gender

Ahead of Election Day, 2.56m Democrats have cast ballots, 2.47m Republicans have cast ballots, 1.24m No Party Affiliates have cast ballots, and 154k voters registered with 3rd Parties have cast ballots.

3.52m women and 2.76m men have voted, with another 139k votes cast by voters whose gender is not reported.

And by race/ethnicity, 4.23m whites, 980k Hispanics, 841k blacks, and 375k voters of mixed, other or unknown race have cast ballots.

By gender, what follows are tables with the share of votes cast across party registration for each racial/ethnic group.

Percent of Early Votes Cast by Women
Other Black Hispanic White Total
Dem 43.9 88.2 43.2 34.2 44.1
Rep 23.4 2.2 27.4 47.2 36.2
NPA 30.9 9.0 28.2 16.1 17.7
3rd 1.8 0.7 1.3 2.6 2.0
Total 100 100 100 100 100
Percent of Early Votes Cast by Men
Other Black Hispanic White Total
Dem 37.0 81.4 38.1 26.3 34.6
Rep 25.8 4.0 31.0 51.8 42.2
NPA 34.8 13.1 29.2 18.5 20.3
3rd 2.4 1.5 1.7 3.4 2.9

Cannibals, All!

So, as of this morning, some 6.4m votes have been cast in Florida.

We know that the Hispanic share of the early vote (EIP & VBM) has increased relative to 2012 share of the electorate.

The real Q, is the cannibalization rate of 2016 voters, and whether the voters who have banked their votes prior to tomorrow’s Election Day, are truly new voters, or just ones who had turned out in 2012.

The following chart has the racial/ethnic composition of early voters in 2016 who DID NOT CAST A BALLOT in 2012, broken down by when they registered to vote.

Of the 6.4m votes cast heading into Election Day, 1.69m were cast by registered voters who skipped 2012 GE. Some 607.8k of them were registered prior to 2013, but chose to sit it out. Roughly 61% of the pre-2013 registrants are white, only 22% are Hispanic, and 10% black.

The percentages of the racial/ethnic composition of 2016 voters who registered AFTER the 2012 GE, the composition of those who registered this year looks considerably different than pre-2013 as well as those who registered in 2014 & 2015.

In the table below, the column on the right reveals that only 52% of the 2016 registrants who have voted in a presidential election for the first-time are white, whereas 23.5% are Hispanic.

2016-2012-racial-ethnic-composition-of-the-early-vote

The Race to 270 may well come down to Florida and the votes of the voters who didn’t go to the polls four years ago, or who became newly registered. With turnout of new voters so robust, it’s hard to say there’s an enthusiasm gap in Florida.