Explaining Trump’s Win in Florida: 10 Election Myths & Realities

Look forward to joining USF’s Dr. Susan MacManus tonight at the Bob Graham Center at Pugh Hall, University of Florida, for our Election Recap.

Should be Live Streaming here.

Monday, November 14, 2016 – 6:00 pm

Two of Florida’s most prominent political commentators, Susan MacManus and Dan Smith, will discuss the results and implications of the 2016 elections at the Bob Graham Center on Monday, Nov. 14 at 6 p.m. in Pugh Hall.

Dr. Susan MacManus, Florida’s most-quoted political scientist, is a Distinguished University Professor at the University of South Florida in the Department of Government and International Affairs. Since 2008, she has been a featured columnist on sayfiereview.com—a widely-read Florida-based political website. MacManus has appeared as a panelist on WFLA TV’s Road to the White House program which was nominated for a Suncoast Emmy award in 2008. Aside from authoring numerous books, she has also appeared on every major cable television and radio network and has been interviewed by several major newspapers in Florida, the U.S., and abroad.

Dr. Daniel Smith is a University of Florida Research Foundation (2010-2012) Professor of Political Science at the University of Florida. He is fundamentally interested in how political institutions affect political behavior across the United States. He has published more than eighty scholarly articles and numerous books on the politics and process of direct democracy and voting rights and elections in the U.S.

An ElectionSmith Exclusive: 1.44m out of the 6.42m Floridians who Cast EIP or VBM Ballots DID NOT Vote in 2012. Who are they? Party, Race/Ethnicity Details here..

Here’s the race/ethnic share of the 549k Democrats, 588k Republicans, 272k NPAs, and 35k 3rd party voters who didn’t vote in 2012 but who cast ballots ahead of Election Day.

Dem Rep NPA 3rd Total
Other 5.0 3.2 9.3 4.19 5.1
Black 23.2 0.87 5.7 3.9 10.3
Hisp. 18.5 12.9 25.8 10.2 17.4
White 53.3 83.1 59.2 81.8 67.2
Total 100 100 100 100 100

And inversely, here’s party breakdown for the 73k other, 149k blacks, 251k Hispanics, and 970k whites who’ve already voted but who didn’t vote in 2012..

Dem Rep NPA 3rd Total
Other 37.9 25.4 34.8 2.0 100
Black 85.3 3.4 10.4 0.9 100
Hisp. 40.5 30.2 27.9 1.4 100
White 30.1 50.4 16.6 3.0 100
Total 38.0 40.7 18.8 2.4 100

 

Most importantly, here’s the breakdown of the analysis of the Florida electorate that I’ll be crunching tomorrow…