So, as of this morning, some 6.4m votes have been cast in Florida.

We know that the Hispanic share of the early vote (EIP & VBM) has increased relative to 2012 share of the electorate.

The real Q, is the cannibalization rate of 2016 voters, and whether the voters who have banked their votes prior to tomorrow’s Election Day, are truly new voters, or just ones who had turned out in 2012.

The following chart has the racial/ethnic composition of early voters in 2016 who DID NOT CAST A BALLOT in 2012, broken down by when they registered to vote.

Of the 6.4m votes cast heading into Election Day, 1.69m were cast by registered voters who skipped 2012 GE. Some 607.8k of them were registered prior to 2013, but chose to sit it out. Roughly 61% of the pre-2013 registrants are white, only 22% are Hispanic, and 10% black.

The percentages of the racial/ethnic composition of 2016 voters who registered AFTER the 2012 GE, the composition of those who registered this year looks considerably different than pre-2013 as well as those who registered in 2014 & 2015.

In the table below, the column on the right reveals that only 52% of the 2016 registrants who have voted in a presidential election for the first-time are white, whereas 23.5% are Hispanic.

2016-2012-racial-ethnic-composition-of-the-early-vote

The Race to 270 may well come down to Florida and the votes of the voters who didn’t go to the polls four years ago, or who became newly registered. With turnout of new voters so robust, it’s hard to say there’s an enthusiasm gap in Florida.