About electionsmith

Dr. Daniel A. Smith is Chair and Professor of Political Science at the University of Florida and President of ElectionSmith, Inc. He is former Director of the Political Campaigning Program at the University of Florida. He received his Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of Wisconsin - Madison in 1994, and his B.A. (Phi Beta Kappa) in History and Political Science (Foreign Affairs) from Penn State University in 1988. Professor Smith's research examines how political institutions affect political behavior across and within the American states. Currently, he is working with Dr. Michael C. Herron (Dartmouth College), on several projects that exam how changes to election laws in the American states are influencing voter participation. Dr. Smith has published more than eighty scholarly articles and book chapters on politics in the American states. His book with Caroline J. Tolbert, Educated by Initiative: The Effects of Direct Democracy on Citizens and Political Organizations in the American States (University of Michigan Press, 2004), examines the “educative effects” of the initiative process on voter turnout, citizen engagement, and political efficacy, as well as the indirect impact citizen lawmaking has on interest groups and political parties. Smith’s first book, Tax Crusaders and the Politics of Direct Democracy (Routledge, 1998), investigated the financial backing and the populist-sounding rhetoric of three anti-tax ballot initiatives: Proposition 13 in California (1978), Proposition 2 1/2 in Massachusetts (1980), and Amendment 1 in Colorado (1992). He is also the coauthor, with Todd Donovan, Tracy Osborne, and Christopher Mooney of a widely-used textbook, State and Local Politics: Institutions and Reform (Cengage, 2015), now in its 4th edition. Professor Smith serves on the Board of Directors of the Ballot Initiative Strategy Center Foundation (BISCF), a nonprofit organization based in Washington, DC, and is a member of the Advisory Board of Common Cause Florida. Smith served as a Senior Fulbright Scholar at the University of Ghana in 2000-01 and as a Senior Research Associate at the Center for Democratic Development in 2011, and has written widely on contemporary Ghanaian electoral politics. A seasoned observer of election laws, voting rights, and ballot initiative campaigns around the country, and on the politics of Florida, Professor Smith’s commentary has appeared in or has been heard on numerous news media, including The New York Times, the Economist, USA Today, the Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, the Los Angeles Times, BBC, National Public Radio, Voice of America, and ABC and NBC News. Professor Smith has advised the state legislatures of Colorado and Florida, as well as numerous groups across the country, on the mechanics of the initiative process and the politics of voting rights and redistricting. He has served as an expert witness in dozens of legal cases dealing with voting rights, ballot measures, campaign finance laws, and redistricting, and is the lead author of an amicus brief in Doe v. Reed, decided by the Supreme Court of the United States in 2010.

Registering “Returning Citizens” in Florida

The passage of Amendment 4 in Florida in November 2018 was historic. Excluding convicted murderers and sexual offenders, the Voting Restoration Amendment automatically restores the voting rights of citizens with prior felony convictions who served their sentence (including probation, parole, and any fines, fees, or restitution).

Eligible ex-felons were permitted to register to vote starting on January 8, 2019.  Some estimates placed the potential number of ex-felons who might register in the Sunshine State as high as 1.4 million people, or nearly one-tenth of the current registered voters in Florida.  Scholars estimate that as many as one-in-four black men in Florida have been disenfranchised by a law that dates back to the state’s 1868 Florida Constitution.

In January, reporters flocked to the offices of the state’s 67 Supervisors of Elections to interview newly registering voters—including those locked out from the democratic process for decades or who had never experienced the franchise.

According to the Florida Secretary of State, more than 53,000 Floridians registered to vote in January 2019.

Although not all of the new registrants had a felony conviction, was the registration rate in January higher than expected?

Although the number of new registrants in January 2019 exceeded the number from December 2018, the uptick was likely not solely the result of a surge in ex-felons registering to vote.  Indeed, compared to new registrations in previous years, the numbers are not dramatically higher–roughly 49,000 voters registered in January 2018; nearly 38,000 registered in in January 2017; and over 50,000 registered in January 2016. In all cases, the January numbers were greater than the previous December.

Perhaps one reason why we didn’t see a huge surge in new registrations was due to complications in the rollout of Amendment 4. Backers of the measure, including the ACLU of Florida, argue that the measure is self-implementing. But there continues to be confusion over how the verification of returning citizens should occur or how murder or sex offender should be defined. A Senate Criminal Justice Committee legislative hearing in January revealed numerous discrepancies in the verification process.

On a positive note, some returning citizens—most notably Desmond Meade, the charismatic leader of the Florida Rights Restoration Coalition—successfully registered in January.

But others have not been so lucky.

After scouring news reports, we identified 61 individuals in January who self-identified as former felons who were registering to vote.

Some of these returning citizens, though, still have not been placed on the voter rolls.

Drawing on public records, we’ve identified more than 20 of the 61 self-identified returning citizens not on the books as of February 1. It’s possible that some moved out of Florida, died, or reported a nickname to reporters when they registered to vote. There are other possibilities, tragic and ironic, too.

It’s also possible that some applicants had missing information on their registration form. Florida requires an applicant’s name, address of legal residence, date of birth, checking the box affirming that the applicant is a citizen of the United States, and a current and valid Florida driver license number or number from a Florida identification card, or the last four digits of their Social Security number.

For returning citizens to leave required information off a form would be odd, as reporters documented how Supervisors and voting rights advocates oversaw the process. And even if missing information caused a delay in processing the applications, according to the Florida Statutes, “[t]he registration date for a valid initial voter registration application that has been hand delivered is the date that the application is received by a driver license office, a voter registration agency, an armed forces recruitment office, the division, or the office of any supervisor in the state.”

The confusion over allowing returning citizens to register to vote is disconcerting.  Although our sample of self-identified ex-felons is small and non-random, our findings may portend further complications for this historically marginalized population to be able to successfully register to vote.

Why might all this matter? To be eligible to vote in Florida, one must be registered at least 29 days prior to Election Day.  It is possible that some of our returning citizens may have their franchise jeopardized in upcoming local elections.

Let’s hope—with guidance from the state legislature—that our local Supervisors of Elections and the Florida Division of Elections can hammer out a fair process to assure that all returning citizens who register to vote have their applications processed in a timely and proper manner.

Returning citizens and the more than 5 million Floridians who supported Amendment 4 last November are counting on it.


This opinion piece was written by my three University of Florida Political Science Junior Fellows, Karla Cejas, Sydney ElDeiry, Max Matheu. They are part of the UF Election Science team lead by Professor Michael McDonald (aka, @electproject) and me.


Think your ballot counts in Florida? If legislation passes this session, you may never know…

One in 20 ballots cast by the 56.6k 18-21 year-olds in Florida who voted by mail in the 2018 General Election were rejected as invalid by county Canvassing Boards. This figure is even higher than in previous election years, as I found in my report for ACLU Florida.

I suspect that federal Judge Mark Walker, who ruled prior to the 2018 General Election that Florida voters should have an opportunity to cure their vote-by-mail ballots if they they had a problem with their signature, might be surprised by this figure.

Perhaps I’ll write more about this troubling statistic. Or perhaps not.

It will depend on whether election records in Florida remain open to the public for scrutiny.

Chances are, they may not be.  So much for the “Sunshine State.”

Republican Representative Cyndi Stevenson has introduced HB 218, https://myfloridahouse.gov/Sections/Bills/billsdetail.aspx?BillId=63174, which is similar to Republican Senator Tom Lee’s SB 342, https://www.flsenate.gov/Session/Bill/2019/00342.*

The bills are a follow-up to a 2018 bill (HB 761) filed by Representative Stevenson, which would have kept voter information secret. That bill passed 10-0 out of committee. There was no public discussion or debate.

Sure, there some privacy issues that may concern some people when voter registration records available to the public.  But open record laws are essential if you want to ensure you haven’t been kicked off the voter rolls or to ensure that that ballot that you cast actually is counted.

Do you know if you were one of the 35k voters in Florida who had his or her ballot rejected (either their Vote-by-Mail or their provisional ballot cast at the polls)?

Sadly if this bill passes, in the future, you may never know.

Public records are essential for scholars to be able to dig down into the weeds to ensure the equal protection of voters.  Our ability to do so in Florida hinges on whether the state legislature decides to follow the self-serving recommendation of our elected Supervisors of Elections to restrict voter records and avoid public scrutiny and accountability.

Don’t be fooled about this bill being an effort to protect voters.  If it passes, it will have exactly the opposite effect. Without transparency, voter disenfranchisement becomes much more of a reality.

Don’t let democracy in the Sunshine State die in darkness.


*Note: Corrections for 2019 legislation.


If I find time, I might start digging a little deeper into patterns of rejected Vote-by-Mail ballots across Florida’s counties…

since it’s something I’ve written about in my report for the @ACLUFL, and since they lie at the heart of Bill Nelson’s Nelson Complaint in federal court challenging invalidated mail ballots due to mismatched signatures.