Exclusive Pre-Election Day Hispanic Republican Votes Cast by Florida Counties

Here are the total ballots cast by Republican Hispanics and the percentages of registered Republican Hispanic voters who cast ballots, as of the start of Election Day voting this morning. I’ve sorted by the top 10 counties in terms of percentages. Not surprisingly, Miami-Dade (DAD), has the highest overall vote total and percentage of Republican Hispanic turnout, perhaps an indication of Marco Rubio’s pull in his home county.  We’ll see later tonight what the tally is for late arriving absentee ballots as well as Election Day voting.

County Hispanic Republican votes cast Tot Registered Hispanic Republicans % Republican Hispanic Turnout
DAD 80,284 274,474 29.3%
BRE 1,190 5,741 20.7%
CLL 1,208 5,924 20.4%
PIN 1,228 6,075 20.2%
LEE 1,647 8,514 19.3%
SEM 1,436 7,530 19.1%
HIL 4,671 25,077 18.6%
BRO 8,776 48,906 17.9%
ORA 4,471 26,878 16.6%
OSC 1,740 10,885 16.0%

 

2.09m votes already cast in Florida as polls opened this morning. Party, Race/Ethnicity, Age Breakdowns here:

When precincts opened their doors this morning at 7am, more than 2.09m Floridians had already cast their ballots.

Nearly 1.17m out of the 4.56m active and inactive registered Republicans in the state had cast early in-person or absentee ballots ahead of Election Day, or 25.6% of all registered Republicans.

Nearly 865k out of the 5.04m active and inactive registered Democrats in the state had cast early in-person or absentee ballots ahead of Election Day, or 17.2% of all registered Democrats.

An additional 52.8k NPAs and 3rd party registrants cast ballots (but not for the GOP or Democratic nominees), as did another 3.6k (out of the 28.9k) who registered to vote between February 1 and February 16, the last day to register to vote in the presidential preference primary election.

Older voters in both parties came out in force.  739.3k (63%) of all Republican ballots cast prior to Election Day were cast by voters 60 and older. 514.5k (59%) of all Democratic ballots cast prior to Election Day were cast by voters 60 and older.Only 50.3k Republican and 59.8k Democrats under the age of 30 voted during the early voting period or by absentee ballot.

Sliced differently, only 8.7% of all registered Republicans under 30 and only 7% of all registered Democrats under 30 have voted prior to Election Day, whereas nearly 40% of all registered Republicans over 60 and 29% of all registered Democrats over 60 cast ballots ahead of today, March 15, 2016.

What about the partisan breakdown along racial/ethnic lines?

Slightly more than 1m white Republicans have cast ballots, nearly ten times the 119.5k Hispanic Republicans who voted early in-person and absentee.

Among Democratic early and absentee voters, 547k are white,86.9k are Hispanic, and 191.5k are black.

 

 

 

 

Exclusive: Latest Presidential Primary Vote Totals in Florida

As of this morning, which accounts for all early in-person ballots cast through the final day (Sunday, March 13) of early voting as well as all absentee ballots processed by the state’s 67 SOEs this morning, over 2 million votes have been cast ahead of Florida’s 2016 presidential preference primaries.  Roughly 2.038m, to be more precise.

Over 1.136m Republicans have voted, including 657.1k absentee ballots and 479.2k early in-person voters.

Nearly 846.8k Democrats have voted, including 481.1k absentee ballots and 365.7k early in-person voters..

Not surprisingly, Florida’s electorate is old. Over 61.5% of the total votes cast have been by voters over the age of 60.  Less than 6% of the total votes cast (GOP, Dem, and NPA/3rd parties) have cast by voters under the age of 30.

White Republicans over the age of 60 still dominate the GOP presidential primary electorate: over 635k white Republicans have cast ballots, or nearly 65% of the total Republican ballots cast thus far. Hispanics registered as Republicans have cast a total of 117.3k ballots, or roughly 10% of the total Republican votes cast.

On the Democratic side, older white voters also make up a majority of those who have voted in advance of tomorrow’s election. White Democrats have cast 535.9k ballots, or 63% of all Democratic ballots cast thus far.  Of those 535.9k ballots cast by white Democrats, nearly 67% have been cast by voters over the age of 60.  Hispanics registered as Democrats have cast 85.3k ballots (10%), and blacks registered as Democrats have cast nearly 187.0k ballots (22%).

Be very weary of pollsters who haven’t been weighting their early votes (early in-person and absentee) by these figures. They might be heavily #Skewed.

Exclusive Breakdown of Florida’s 1.125m Republican Votes Cast, By Race/Ethnicity

As of this morning, more than 1.125m Floridians have cast ballots in the GOP presidential preference primary.

Here’s the breakdown by race/ethnicity:

971.6k white Republicans have already voted; that’s 86.3% of the total votes cast in the GOP PPP. Thus far, 112.6k Republican Hispanics have voted, or 10% of the total.

Overall, 24.5% of registered Republicans (active and inactive) have already voted.

The overall 1.125m Republican ballots cast to date includes 484.6k voters who did not participate in the 2012 PPP, or 43% of the vote total.  Nearly 85% of these voters who didn’t bother (as well as some who weren’t registered) to vote in 2012 in the primary are white.

The overall GOP total votes cast also includes 3.5k of the party’s 307k  inactive voters; 73% are white and 22% are Hispanic.

One last demographic breakdown for the GOP voters who’ve voted early in-person or by absentee ballot: they’re old.  Nearly 64% of votes cast by registered Republicans in Florida’s PPP are at least 60 years of age.  Slightly more than 4% — only 46k voters — are under 30.  Of that younger GOP crowd, 80% are white.

Draw your own conclusions…

 

Exclusive: 1.98 million votes cast in Florida; Over 25k Last Minuite Party-Switchers

As of this morning, 1.98m early in-person and absentee ballots have been cast in Florida.  Early voting is now complete in Florida, and these totals include all early in-person ballots cast in Florida (except for those cast in the 9 counties that extended the option to voters today) as well as absentee ballots received as of this morning.

Over 1.125m Republicans have cast absentee and early in-person ballots.  Of the 4.59m registered Republicans (active and inactive), 24.5% have voted.

Over 824.4m Democrats have cast  absentee and early in-person ballots.  Of the 5.05m registered Democrats (active and inactive), 16.3% have voted.

The balance of votes have been cast by NPAs and those registered with 3rd parties.

These early vote totals include last-minute party-switchers and new registrants.

The Democrats picked up more than 4k Floridians who registered in the final two weeks prior to the February 16 book closing and who have already voted in the Democratic PPP primary. But the total also includes nearly 10k registered voters who switched to the Democratic Party in the final two weeks before the cutoff date, including nearly 6.9k NPAs and 1.9k previously registered Republicans.

Republicans picked up more than 4.8k new registrants during the final two weeks who have already voted, but also added 15k previously registered Floridians who switched their party registrations, including 7.7k NPAs.

Is this party-switching registration during the final two weeks prior to the book closing on February 16 evidence of strategic voting?  Likely so. (I’ll be digging into this in greater detail for a forthcoming academic paper).