Archives for category: Absentee Ballots

Still trying to figure out how to best visualize Trump’s overwhelming victory on Election Day in Florida. The following panel of figures draw on precinct-level data that our Election Sciences team at UF has helped me collect. The data presented here show only the precincts in the state in which white voters made up at least 75% of the votes cast for each method of voting (Election Day, Early In-Person, and Vote-by-Mail), and that had at least 100 ballots cast for each method.  In other words, these are heavily white precincts where whites cast at least 75% of all ballots cast for each method of voting.

Running along the X-Axis is the proportion of the overall vote that Trump won (so, from 0% to 100%). The height of each vertical bar (there are a total of 60 bars) constitutes the fraction of the total votes Trump received — that is, add them all up and they equal 100% of Trump’s total votes by each method). The red vertical line in each panel is set at .5, or precincts in which Trump won 50% of the total votes cast.

Trump by Precincts3

As should be clear, Trump crushed it Election Days in these predominantly white precincts. The peak of the very tight normal distribution curve for Election Day voters in precincts where three-fourths of the votes cast were by white voters is greater than 65%.  Trump did not do nearly as well (relatively speaking) among vote-by-mail voters in predominantly white precincts; he fared better with predominantly white precincts whose voters cast early in-person ballots.

Stay tuned for similar graphs with Trump’s support among predominantly Hispanic precincts, broken down by method of vote.

Here’s the racial/ethnic breakdown by gender of the 2.27m Democrats who have voted Early-In-Person or have had their Vote-by-Mail ballots processed by the the state’s 67 Supervisors of Elections through yesterday, November 5, 21016.

democratic-gender-raceethnic-breakdown-nov-4

Of the 1.1m Floridians who have cast vote-by-mail ballots that have been received by the state’s 67 SOEs through yesterday (Friday, 22 October 2016), nearly half (46%) did not vote an absentee ballot in the 2012 General Election.

In fact, of the 1.1m VBM cast thus far, 215.6k didn’t vote in the 2012 GE at all. So, one out of five VBMs received by SOEs are from voters who didn’t participate in the 2012 GE.

Of the new VBM voters, some 35k registered to vote in 2016, including 5,312 who’ve registered since September 1, 2016.

More Democrats than Republicans who’ve already cast a VBM either skipped or registered subsequent to the November 6, 2012 GE.  82.7k Democrats (18.7%) and 76.5k Republicans (16.5%) have not voted for president since at least 2008, if ever.

As I’ve noted elsewhere, though, the big surge in VBM in 2016 in Florida is with No Party Affiliates.  Nearly 51k of the 172.7k NPAs who have cast VBMs so far are voting for the first time (or at least since 2008).

So, who are these newbie NPAs who didn’t vote in 2012?

Nearly 18% are Hispanic, but that’s below the 22% of all NPAs in the voter file who are Hispanic (as of September 1, 2016).   Over 68% of the NPAs who’ve voted a VBM ballot but  who didn’t vote in 2012 are white, well above the 59% of all NPAs in the voter file who are white.

However, a greater percentage of VBM voters who didn’t vote in 2012  (compared to those who voted in 2012) are Hispanic and a smaller percentage are white.

So, lots of new voters are casting mail ballots for the first time. The demographics look pretty comparable to VBM voters who cast ballots by this mode in 2012.

Of course, lots of VBM (and early-in-person and Election Day) ballots to come…

 

 

 

 

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