Archives for category: Early Vote

Here’s the race/ethnic share of the 549k Democrats, 588k Republicans, 272k NPAs, and 35k 3rd party voters who didn’t vote in 2012 but who cast ballots ahead of Election Day.

Dem Rep NPA 3rd Total
Other 5.0 3.2 9.3 4.19 5.1
Black 23.2 0.87 5.7 3.9 10.3
Hisp. 18.5 12.9 25.8 10.2 17.4
White 53.3 83.1 59.2 81.8 67.2
Total 100 100 100 100 100

And inversely, here’s party breakdown for the 73k other, 149k blacks, 251k Hispanics, and 970k whites who’ve already voted but who didn’t vote in 2012..

Dem Rep NPA 3rd Total
Other 37.9 25.4 34.8 2.0 100
Black 85.3 3.4 10.4 0.9 100
Hisp. 40.5 30.2 27.9 1.4 100
White 30.1 50.4 16.6 3.0 100
Total 38.0 40.7 18.8 2.4 100

 

Most importantly, here’s the breakdown of the analysis of the Florida electorate that I’ll be crunching tomorrow…

miami-dade

So, as of this morning, some 6.4m votes have been cast in Florida.

We know that the Hispanic share of the early vote (EIP & VBM) has increased relative to 2012 share of the electorate.

The real Q, is the cannibalization rate of 2016 voters, and whether the voters who have banked their votes prior to tomorrow’s Election Day, are truly new voters, or just ones who had turned out in 2012.

The following chart has the racial/ethnic composition of early voters in 2016 who DID NOT CAST A BALLOT in 2012, broken down by when they registered to vote.

Of the 6.4m votes cast heading into Election Day, 1.69m were cast by registered voters who skipped 2012 GE. Some 607.8k of them were registered prior to 2013, but chose to sit it out. Roughly 61% of the pre-2013 registrants are white, only 22% are Hispanic, and 10% black.

The percentages of the racial/ethnic composition of 2016 voters who registered AFTER the 2012 GE, the composition of those who registered this year looks considerably different than pre-2013 as well as those who registered in 2014 & 2015.

In the table below, the column on the right reveals that only 52% of the 2016 registrants who have voted in a presidential election for the first-time are white, whereas 23.5% are Hispanic.

2016-2012-racial-ethnic-composition-of-the-early-vote

The Race to 270 may well come down to Florida and the votes of the voters who didn’t go to the polls four years ago, or who became newly registered. With turnout of new voters so robust, it’s hard to say there’s an enthusiasm gap in Florida.

 

Busy day, so wanted to get these tweets up comparing EIP and VBM from 2012 and 2016. Of course, we still have 2 more days of VBM to process through Election Day, and 2 counties (Hendry & St. Lucie) have yet to report yesterday’s VBM totals.

monday-morning-2012-2016-comparison

Here’s the racial/ethnic breakdown by gender of the 2.26m Republicans who have voted Early-In-Person or have had their Vote-by-Mail ballots processed by the the state’s 67 Supervisors of Elections through yesterday, November 5, 21016.

republican-gender-raceethnic-breakdown-2016-thru-nov-4

[corrected composition %s]

 

Here’s the racial/ethnic breakdown by gender of the 2.27m Democrats who have voted Early-In-Person or have had their Vote-by-Mail ballots processed by the the state’s 67 Supervisors of Elections through yesterday, November 5, 21016.

democratic-gender-raceethnic-breakdown-nov-4

412k registered since the 2012 General Election.

These 412k early voters are casting their first ballots in a presidential election in Florida. Many, no doubt, are snowbirds, who voted up north in 2012 before retiring to our lovely beaches. Others, to be sure, are recently naturalized citizens, or have recently turned 18. Still others finally got around to registering to vote in Florida.

Crunching the numbers, I’m able to determine who these newbies are — their party affiliation, their race/ethnicity, and their gender.

Don’t have time to dive into the numbers, but here are some graphs of the 412k early voters in 2016 (as of yesterday, November 2) who’ve registered in Florida since the 2012 GE.

There are 2 percentage point more Democrats than Republicans, but NPAs are more than holding up their share of the overall electorate. Recently registered whites are dominating, but Hispanics are out-performing their share of the electorate. And women are out-performing men, but not nearly at the overall rate in terms of the gender gap of the nearly 5 million Floridians who’ve already cast ballots ahead of the November 8, 2016 General Election.

 

post-2012-early-2016-voters-party-nov-2post-2012-early-2016-voters-raceethnicity-nov-2post-2012-early-2016-voters-gender-nov-2

 

Of the roughly 13.8m voters who are registered in Florida, 42% of them — some 5.8 million registered voters — either skipped the 2012 General Election (even though they were registered to vote), or registered to vote over the past four years.

How many of these infrequent Florida voters have turned out in 2016, either casting a vote-by-mail ballot or voting early in-person?

Crunching the numbers, as of this morning more than 1.1 million votes have been cast by voters who either opted to sit on the sidelines, or who were not yet registered to vote in the Sunshine State in 2012 when Barack Obama narrowly beat Mitt Romney.

That’s right, through Wednesday, November 2, with just six days to go before Election Day, over 1.1m have been cast by “new” voters — that is, voters who didn’t participate in the 2012 General Election.

Who are these suddenly energized folks? “Trumpkins”? “Lazy Ds”? Notoriously low-turnout No Party Affiliates?

Let’s go to the numbers…

Of the 1.1m who’ve cast ballots in 2016 but who sat out or weren’t eligible to vote in 2012, 37% are Democrats, 33% are Republicans, and 27% are NPAs.

By race/ethnicity, most of the 2012 GE-skippers are white (63%), but Hispanics make up 19%, with the share of black registrants over 9%.  Over 51% of these 2016 early voters who didn’t vote in 2012 are women, and 44% men, with the balance comprised of those with an unrecorded gender.

Of the 1.1m who’ve already voted in 2016, roughly 412k were registered in time to vote in the 2012 GE but opted to stay home.

Who are they?

Of these 412k newly energized voters who skipped 2012, 38% some might call “Lazy Ds”, 33% might very well be awakened “Trumpkins”, and 26% may be NPAs who in 2012 couldn’t be bothered by making a choice between Obama and Romney.  Of course, there are numerous other reasons for why these registered voters stayed home in 2012 but have chosen to vote in 2016 — perhaps some of them are #NeverTrump Republicans who can stand their party’s flag bearer, or perhaps some are Democrats who couldn’t stomach voting for Obama for a second term in 2012 and didn’t bother voting.

In my next post, I’ll look at the 723k voters who have cast ballots in 2016 who registered to vote in Florida after the 2012 General Election.

Women are out performing their share of the state’s 12.7m active registered voters.

Women have cast nearly 1/2 a million more early votes in Florida than men so far in this election. Democratic women account for most of this gender gap, as they’ve cast some 400k more votes than Democratic men, a 22 percentage point gender divide. Although women account for 58% of active women registered with the Democratic Party in Florida, they’ve cast more than 60% of all votes by Democrats.

But Republican and NPA women also have cast more votes than their male counterparts, 75k and 22k respectively. Each is roughly 4 percentage points more than the respective share of active Republicans and NPAs who are registered.

Across race/ethnicity, the biggest gender gap of those who’ve cast early votes is among black voters. African-American women account for 62% of the 520k votes cast by blacks thus far. Hispanic women account for 56% of the 615k votes cast, and white women account for 54% of the 3.1m votes cast by white voters.

More on this later…

fl-eip-vbm-combined-through-oct-31-2016-2012-comparison-race

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