Again, the math doesn’t add up. CNN’s exit poll of Florida voters reports that 16% self-reported Republicans who voted in the Florida PPP as being “latino” [sic].
We know that prior to Election Day, of the more than 1.2m registered Republicans who had already voted, more than 86% self-identified as “white” when they registered to vote. Only 10.3% marked on their voter registration cards that they were “Hispanic.”
It’s stretches the imagination, then, that one in five of the 1.16m Republicans who voted on Election Day (some 254k) were Hispanic voters. Sure, some 192k Republican Hispanics didn’t vote early in Miami-Dade, but chances are, a few of them also stayed home on Election Day. Indeed, there were less than 400k Republican Hispanics statewide who had yet to vote on Election Day. Nearly every one of them would have had to have voted on Election Day in order for the CNN exit poll figure for Hispanic turnout to map out.
With such dubious baseline figures, I’d throw caution to the wind for anyone digging any deeper into the CNN exit poll crosstabs in Florida. One wonders how far off the exit polls are in the other states that have had primaries?
I will be digging into this some more as time permits. Although I can’t find a link to the exit poll methodology or how weighting was done, I’m assuming CNN drew its sample of 1907 Republicans not only from Election Day voters, but sampled early in-person and called absentee voters who cast ballots ahead of the March 15, 2016 PPP in Florida.
But some quick observations of the marginals…
First, and most glaringly, I am hard-pressed to believe that only 39% of Republican respondents were 60+. Sure, Election Day voters tend to be younger than convenience voters (early in-person and absentee mail), but my analysis of the statewide voter file and absentee and early in-person voting indicates that of the nearly 1.2m Republicans who voted prior to Election Day, 63.4% were 60+.
So, some simple arithmetic: A total of nearly 2.36m votes were cast by Republicans in the PPP; less than half of the total (roughly 1.16m) were cast on Election Day. If CNN’s exit poll is accurate, that 39% of Republican voters were 60+, it would mean that 919.9k of the 2.36m Republican voters were in this group of older voters. But roughly 756.9k Republicans 60+ had already voted early (in-person and absentee), which leaves only 163k Republicans over 60 to show up on Election Day. That would mean that only 1 in 8 of the 1.64m Republican voters who showed up on Election Day were 60+.
That’s just not credible.
This is not the first time I’ve found problems with CNN’s exit polls; its 2014 General Election exit polling breakdown for the age of voters was also way off.
But we’ll know for sure about the accuracy of CNN’s 2016 PPP exit polls in Florida next month.
When precincts opened their doors this morning at 7am, more than 2.09m Floridians had already cast their ballots.
Nearly 1.17m out of the 4.56m active and inactive registered Republicans in the state had cast early in-person or absentee ballots ahead of Election Day, or 25.6% of all registered Republicans.
Nearly 865k out of the 5.04m active and inactive registered Democrats in the state had cast early in-person or absentee ballots ahead of Election Day, or 17.2% of all registered Democrats.
An additional 52.8k NPAs and 3rd party registrants cast ballots (but not for the GOP or Democratic nominees), as did another 3.6k (out of the 28.9k) who registered to vote between February 1 and February 16, the last day to register to vote in the presidential preference primary election.
Older voters in both parties came out in force. 739.3k (63%) of all Republican ballots cast prior to Election Day were cast by voters 60 and older. 514.5k (59%) of all Democratic ballots cast prior to Election Day were cast by voters 60 and older.Only 50.3k Republican and 59.8k Democrats under the age of 30 voted during the early voting period or by absentee ballot.
Sliced differently, only 8.7% of all registered Republicans under 30 and only 7% of all registered Democrats under 30 have voted prior to Election Day, whereas nearly 40% of all registered Republicans over 60 and 29% of all registered Democrats over 60 cast ballots ahead of today, March 15, 2016.
What about the partisan breakdown along racial/ethnic lines?
Slightly more than 1m white Republicans have cast ballots, nearly ten times the 119.5k Hispanic Republicans who voted early in-person and absentee.
Among Democratic early and absentee voters, 547k are white,86.9k are Hispanic, and 191.5k are black.
As of this morning, which accounts for all early in-person ballots cast through the final day (Sunday, March 13) of early voting as well as all absentee ballots processed by the state’s 67 SOEs this morning, over 2 million votes have been cast ahead of Florida’s 2016 presidential preference primaries. Roughly 2.038m, to be more precise.
Over 1.136m Republicans have voted, including 657.1k absentee ballots and 479.2k early in-person voters.
Nearly 846.8k Democrats have voted, including 481.1k absentee ballots and 365.7k early in-person voters..
Not surprisingly, Florida’s electorate is old. Over 61.5% of the total votes cast have been by voters over the age of 60. Less than 6% of the total votes cast (GOP, Dem, and NPA/3rd parties) have cast by voters under the age of 30.
White Republicans over the age of 60 still dominate the GOP presidential primary electorate: over 635k white Republicans have cast ballots, or nearly 65% of the total Republican ballots cast thus far. Hispanics registered as Republicans have cast a total of 117.3k ballots, or roughly 10% of the total Republican votes cast.
On the Democratic side, older white voters also make up a majority of those who have voted in advance of tomorrow’s election. White Democrats have cast 535.9k ballots, or 63% of all Democratic ballots cast thus far. Of those 535.9k ballots cast by white Democrats, nearly 67% have been cast by voters over the age of 60. Hispanics registered as Democrats have cast 85.3k ballots (10%), and blacks registered as Democrats have cast nearly 187.0k ballots (22%).
Be very weary of pollsters who haven’t been weighting their early votes (early in-person and absentee) by these figures. They might be heavily #Skewed.
As of this morning, 1.98m early in-person and absentee ballots have been cast in Florida. Early voting is now complete in Florida, and these totals include all early in-person ballots cast in Florida (except for those cast in the 9 counties that extended the option to voters today) as well as absentee ballots received as of this morning.
Over 1.125m Republicans have cast absentee and early in-person ballots. Of the 4.59m registered Republicans (active and inactive), 24.5% have voted.
Over 824.4m Democrats have cast absentee and early in-person ballots. Of the 5.05m registered Democrats (active and inactive), 16.3% have voted.
The balance of votes have been cast by NPAs and those registered with 3rd parties.
These early vote totals include last-minute party-switchers and new registrants.
The Democrats picked up more than 4k Floridians who registered in the final two weeks prior to the February 16 book closing and who have already voted in the Democratic PPP primary. But the total also includes nearly 10k registered voters who switched to the Democratic Party in the final two weeks before the cutoff date, including nearly 6.9k NPAs and 1.9k previously registered Republicans.
Republicans picked up more than 4.8k new registrants during the final two weeks who have already voted, but also added 15k previously registered Floridians who switched their party registrations, including 7.7k NPAs.
Is this party-switching registration during the final two weeks prior to the book closing on February 16 evidence of strategic voting? Likely so. (I’ll be digging into this in greater detail for a forthcoming academic paper).
As of Friday morning, nearly 700k Democrats had cast ballots ahead of Florida’s PPP. Roughly 18% of white Democrats have already voted; less than 10% of registered black and Hispanic Democrats have cast ballots.
On the Republican side of the ledger, over 934k have cast ballots. More than 1/5 registered white Republicans have voted; Hispanic Republicans are also voting in sizable numbers, with 18.5% of those registered having cast ballots.
Another 4.2k voters who registered in the final two weeks before the February 16 registration cutoff have voted, but we won’t know their party registration or race/ethnicity until a later time.
Are #Millennials voting? So far, no sign of them. They have until Sunday in 9 counties to vote early in-person or until Election Day to get their absentee ballots in, or, of course, turn out to their designated precincts on March 15.
Fewer than 5% of Democrats who are under 30 (as of February 1, 2016) have voted. Less than 3% of the more than 326k black Democrats under the age of 30 have voted; a slightly higher percentage of the 170k under 30 Hispanic Democrats have voted, some 4.7%. Nearly 25% of registered Democrats 60 and over have voted, with older black and white Democrats leading the way.
On the Republican side, over 34% of white Republicans 60 and up have already voted. Older Hispanic Republicans are right behind, with 31% of those registered having voted. Fewer than 6% of Republicans under the age of 30 have voted, with younger Hispanic Republicans outpacing younger white Republicans. #NeverTrump voters, perhaps? If so, it’s less than 5k votes, hardly a counter-punch to rapidly approaching million votes cast by Republicans to date.
As I’ve noted, as of this morning:
15.1% of the state’s registered 4.56m Republicans have voted absentee and early in-person ballots. Around 14.5% of the 511k Hispanics registered as Republicans have cast ballots and 15.5% of the 3.81m white Republicans have voted.
On the Democratic side, 10.8% of the state’s 5.033m registered Democrats have cast early in-person and absentee ballots. Roughly 7.3% of the state’s 1.44m black Democrats, 7.2% of the 757.3k Hispanic Democrats, and 14.2% of the state’s 2.56m white Democrats have voted.
What about Millennials?
Of the roughly 2.31m registered voters under 30 in Florida, 2.3% have voted thus far. Contrast that with the 18.5% turnout of registered voters 60 and over.
Of the 578.0k registered Republicans under 30, 3.9% have voted.
Of the 847.5k registered Democrats under 30, 3.3% have voted.
The reason why voting among the under-30 crowd in Florida is so low is because some 819k voters under the age of 30 are registered as No Party Affiliate, and thus are excluded from the parties’ primaries.
Here’s % voter turnout, by party registration, as of end of March 5, 2016 (early in-person & absentee), for the top 10 and bottom 10 performing counties:
|County||% Rep Turnout||County||% Dem Turnout|
Turnout in Lee County.
Yes, that’s right. Lee County.
44.4k registered Republicans in Lee have voted in the election. That’s a whopping 23.3% turnout rate! Another 20.6k Democrats have already voted, or 16% of registered Democrats.
This far exceeds the party turnout rates in Miami-Dade, but also Pinellas, with its heavy absentee ballot system in place.
Wonders never cease to amaze…