Turnout in Florida by Race/Ethnicity

White voter turnout in Florida from 2012 to 2016 jumped by nearly 4 percentage points, from 73.1% of active voters casting ballots in 2012, to 77.1% of active voters casting ballots in 2016.

Black turnout, which was a major concern for Democrats with President Obama no longer on the ballot, was down by 3.3 percentage points, from 72.3% to 69.0% of active voters.

Hispanic turnout, which saw a dramatic increase from 2012 to 2016 during the early voting period in Florida, was up overall, from 63.1% of active voters casting ballots in 2012, to 68.9% in 2016.

Overall in 2016, Florida’s electorate was less white in 2016 than four years ago.  Whites comprised 68.4% of the electorate in 2012; in 2016, they comprised 66.8% of voters. The difference, not surprisingly, is due to Hispanics making up a greater share of the electorate, from just 12.5% in 2012 to 14.8% in 2016.

It is erroneous to conclude that higher Hispanic turnout in Florida led to greater support for Trump. This is a classic example of an ecological inference fallacy, as others have shown at the precinct level in Miami-Dade County, and as my colleagues and I will be investigating more thoroughly statewide (and by method of vote cast) in the coming days.

Heading into Election Day, over 6.4m Early Votes have been Cast in Florida. Here’s the Race/Ethnicity and Party Breakdown by Gender

Ahead of Election Day, 2.56m Democrats have cast ballots, 2.47m Republicans have cast ballots, 1.24m No Party Affiliates have cast ballots, and 154k voters registered with 3rd Parties have cast ballots.

3.52m women and 2.76m men have voted, with another 139k votes cast by voters whose gender is not reported.

And by race/ethnicity, 4.23m whites, 980k Hispanics, 841k blacks, and 375k voters of mixed, other or unknown race have cast ballots.

By gender, what follows are tables with the share of votes cast across party registration for each racial/ethnic group.

Percent of Early Votes Cast by Women
Other Black Hispanic White Total
Dem 43.9 88.2 43.2 34.2 44.1
Rep 23.4 2.2 27.4 47.2 36.2
NPA 30.9 9.0 28.2 16.1 17.7
3rd 1.8 0.7 1.3 2.6 2.0
Total 100 100 100 100 100
Percent of Early Votes Cast by Men
Other Black Hispanic White Total
Dem 37.0 81.4 38.1 26.3 34.6
Rep 25.8 4.0 31.0 51.8 42.2
NPA 34.8 13.1 29.2 18.5 20.3
3rd 2.4 1.5 1.7 3.4 2.9

Who’s voting Early In-Person in Florida? Racial & Ethnic Totals

Here’s the racial/ethnic breakdown by party for the first day of early in-person voting in Florida.

Of the 8,377 Democrats who have cast EIP, 52% are white, 31% are black, and 13% are Hispanic.  Some 1,666 Democrats in Hillsborough County have cast EIP ballots, 57% of them white, 29% of them black, and 10% Hispanic. In Miami-Dade, whites have cast 37% of the EIP Democratic ballots, blacks 34%, and Hispanics 26%. In Duval County, with 1,439 EIP Democratic ballots cast, blacks have cast 49% and whites 45%. And finally, in Orange County, 47% of the EIP Democratic ballots cast thus far are white voters, 28% are black, and 18% are Hispanic.

Among Republicans, of the 9,354 Republicans who have cast EIP, 81% are white, 1% are black, and 15% are Hispanic. In Miami-Dade, where Republicans have cast 1,543 EIP ballots, 68% have been cast by Hispanics, and only 28% by whites. In Hillsborough County, where the most EIP ballots have been cast by Republicans (1,757), 89% of the ballots cast thus far are by whites. White Republicans casting EIP votes in Duval make up an even greater share of the 1,511 votes cast, some 94% of the total. In Orange County, 10% of the EIP votes by Republicans were by Hispanic voters, with white voters comprising 85% of the total (1,385) EIP votes cast on the first day of early voting.