“Voting by Mail and Ballot Rejection: Lessons from Florida for Elections in the Age of the Coronavirus”
Federal Judge Hinkle’s ruling is here.
New paper by Anna Baringer, Michael C. Herron, and Daniel A. Smith, available here.
The coronavirus and its concomitant need for social distancing have increased the attractiveness of voting by mail (VBM). VBM voting is nonetheless not a panacea for election administration in the time of a pandemic, and this is because a widespread move to this form of voting risks exacerbating existing inequities in mail-in ballot rejection rates across voters and jurisdictions. This motivates our examination of over 8.2 million ballots cast in the 2018 General Election in Florida, including 2.6 million VBM ballots, of which approximately 1.2 percent were rejected by local election officials. We theorize as to why rejected VBM ballots might be linked to individual voter characteristics and to election official discretion, offer a battery of descriptive statistics detailing rejected ballots in Florida’s 2018 election, and provide results from a selection
model that analyzes all of the state’s voters in 2018. We find that younger voters and voters needing assistance are disproportionately likely to have their VBM ballots rejected. We also find disproportionately high rejection rates for out-of-state and military dependents. Lastly, we find significant variation in the rejection rates of VBM ballots cast across Florida’s 67 counties, suggesting a non-uniformity in the way local election officials verify these ballots. As interest in VBM swells in light of the coronavirus, protecting the rights of all voters requires understanding why some voters’ mail ballots are rejected—diminishing their ability to participate in electoral politics—and how this might be rectified.
It’s like Groundhog Day all over again. Republican-controlled Florida legislature is at it again in the 2020 legislative session, cracking down on the right of citizens to collect signatures and have fellow citizens vote on constitutional amendments.
Senate Bill 1794 and House Bill 7037 will impose even more obstacles on the initiative process.
On Tuesday, the Florida House Judiciary Committee proposed PCB CDJ 19-01, a cynical power grab by the majority party to crack down on the citizen initiative process. Over the past 20 years, Floridians, in a state dominated by Republican lawmakers, have consistently approved progressive ballot measures–from High Speed Rail, to Raising the Minimum Wage, to Fair Redistricting, to Medial Marijuana, to Felon Re-infranchisment. When fellow citizens place these statewide constitutional amendments on the ballot for public consumption, Florida voters consistently gobble them up.
Now Republican lawmakers want to crackdown on the initiative process itself, changing the rules of the game so as to stymie future efforts to have citizens approve statewide ballot issues the majority party can easily bury in the legislative process.
PCB CDJ 19-01 is not the only attack on the process of direct democracy in Florida this session. SJR 232 would require citizen-initiated constitutional amendments to…
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