Archives for category: Florida

Look forward to joining USF’s Dr. Susan MacManus tonight at the Bob Graham Center at Pugh Hall, University of Florida, for our Election Recap.

Should be Live Streaming here.

Monday, November 14, 2016 – 6:00 pm

Two of Florida’s most prominent political commentators, Susan MacManus and Dan Smith, will discuss the results and implications of the 2016 elections at the Bob Graham Center on Monday, Nov. 14 at 6 p.m. in Pugh Hall.

Dr. Susan MacManus, Florida’s most-quoted political scientist, is a Distinguished University Professor at the University of South Florida in the Department of Government and International Affairs. Since 2008, she has been a featured columnist on sayfiereview.com—a widely-read Florida-based political website. MacManus has appeared as a panelist on WFLA TV’s Road to the White House program which was nominated for a Suncoast Emmy award in 2008. Aside from authoring numerous books, she has also appeared on every major cable television and radio network and has been interviewed by several major newspapers in Florida, the U.S., and abroad.

Dr. Daniel Smith is a University of Florida Research Foundation (2010-2012) Professor of Political Science at the University of Florida. He is fundamentally interested in how political institutions affect political behavior across the United States. He has published more than eighty scholarly articles and numerous books on the politics and process of direct democracy and voting rights and elections in the U.S.

Here’s the race/ethnic share of the 549k Democrats, 588k Republicans, 272k NPAs, and 35k 3rd party voters who didn’t vote in 2012 but who cast ballots ahead of Election Day.

Dem Rep NPA 3rd Total
Other 5.0 3.2 9.3 4.19 5.1
Black 23.2 0.87 5.7 3.9 10.3
Hisp. 18.5 12.9 25.8 10.2 17.4
White 53.3 83.1 59.2 81.8 67.2
Total 100 100 100 100 100

And inversely, here’s party breakdown for the 73k other, 149k blacks, 251k Hispanics, and 970k whites who’ve already voted but who didn’t vote in 2012..

Dem Rep NPA 3rd Total
Other 37.9 25.4 34.8 2.0 100
Black 85.3 3.4 10.4 0.9 100
Hisp. 40.5 30.2 27.9 1.4 100
White 30.1 50.4 16.6 3.0 100
Total 38.0 40.7 18.8 2.4 100

 

Most importantly, here’s the breakdown of the analysis of the Florida electorate that I’ll be crunching tomorrow…

miami-dade

Ahead of Election Day, 2.56m Democrats have cast ballots, 2.47m Republicans have cast ballots, 1.24m No Party Affiliates have cast ballots, and 154k voters registered with 3rd Parties have cast ballots.

3.52m women and 2.76m men have voted, with another 139k votes cast by voters whose gender is not reported.

And by race/ethnicity, 4.23m whites, 980k Hispanics, 841k blacks, and 375k voters of mixed, other or unknown race have cast ballots.

By gender, what follows are tables with the share of votes cast across party registration for each racial/ethnic group.

Percent of Early Votes Cast by Women
Other Black Hispanic White Total
Dem 43.9 88.2 43.2 34.2 44.1
Rep 23.4 2.2 27.4 47.2 36.2
NPA 30.9 9.0 28.2 16.1 17.7
3rd 1.8 0.7 1.3 2.6 2.0
Total 100 100 100 100 100
Percent of Early Votes Cast by Men
Other Black Hispanic White Total
Dem 37.0 81.4 38.1 26.3 34.6
Rep 25.8 4.0 31.0 51.8 42.2
NPA 34.8 13.1 29.2 18.5 20.3
3rd 2.4 1.5 1.7 3.4 2.9

So, as of this morning, some 6.4m votes have been cast in Florida.

We know that the Hispanic share of the early vote (EIP & VBM) has increased relative to 2012 share of the electorate.

The real Q, is the cannibalization rate of 2016 voters, and whether the voters who have banked their votes prior to tomorrow’s Election Day, are truly new voters, or just ones who had turned out in 2012.

The following chart has the racial/ethnic composition of early voters in 2016 who DID NOT CAST A BALLOT in 2012, broken down by when they registered to vote.

Of the 6.4m votes cast heading into Election Day, 1.69m were cast by registered voters who skipped 2012 GE. Some 607.8k of them were registered prior to 2013, but chose to sit it out. Roughly 61% of the pre-2013 registrants are white, only 22% are Hispanic, and 10% black.

The percentages of the racial/ethnic composition of 2016 voters who registered AFTER the 2012 GE, the composition of those who registered this year looks considerably different than pre-2013 as well as those who registered in 2014 & 2015.

In the table below, the column on the right reveals that only 52% of the 2016 registrants who have voted in a presidential election for the first-time are white, whereas 23.5% are Hispanic.

2016-2012-racial-ethnic-composition-of-the-early-vote

The Race to 270 may well come down to Florida and the votes of the voters who didn’t go to the polls four years ago, or who became newly registered. With turnout of new voters so robust, it’s hard to say there’s an enthusiasm gap in Florida.

 

Busy day, so wanted to get these tweets up comparing EIP and VBM from 2012 and 2016. Of course, we still have 2 more days of VBM to process through Election Day, and 2 counties (Hendry & St. Lucie) have yet to report yesterday’s VBM totals.

monday-morning-2012-2016-comparison

Working on fumes, so this will be quick.

One day (“Souls to the Poll”) of Early-in-Person voting still to tabulate, and thousands more Vote-by-Mail ballots still to make it to election offices by 7pm on Tuesday, but we’re headed for record turnout in Florida.

Over 6.1m votes already cast, rapidly approaching the 8.5m tallied in 2012.

So, with Election Day voting still to come, the Big Q is , which party has cannibalized voters who waited 4 years ago, until Tuesday, November 6, 2012 to vote, by getting them to vote early in 2016?

Let’s start with the parties first:

So far, of the 2.43m Democrats who’ve voted early, 76% voted in 2012.  This includes slightly more than 1/2 million Dems who in 2012 waited until Election Day to cast their ballots.

Of the 2.40m Republicans who’ve cast their lot through this am, 79% voted in 2012, including 558k who voted on Tuesday, Nov. 6, 2012.

Of the 1.16m No Party Affiliates who’ve already voted in the Sunshine State, only 60% voted in 2016, but the plurality of the 2012 voters cast their ballots on Election Day.

So, Republicans are cannibalizing their 2012 likely voters at a slightly higher rate than Democrats, and both parties are drawing in their likely voters at a much higher clip than NPAs.

Flipped upside down, this means that NPAs who stayed home in 2012 are coming out a a much higher rate than the partisans.

None of this surprises me.

What is notable is that nearly 1/4 Republicans who have already cast their mail or in-person ballots in 2016 waited to vote on Election Day in 2012, whereas it’s only slightly more than 1/5 Dems and NPAs who voted on Election Day in 2012 who have already voted. That means there are more votes (raw and percentage) to be had by Clinton than Trump as the final GOTV push occurs on Tuesday.

I don’t feel like writing up the Race/Ethnicity & Age & Gender cannibalization rates right now, but suffice to say, they ain’t pretty for The Donald.

As a tease, I’ll leave you with this tidbit: So far, 36% of the 907k Hispanics who have voted in 2016 didn’t vote by any method in 2012. That’s a full 12 points higher than whites, and will likely be the key to who wins the presidency.

With an extra hour from daylight savings, I was able to crunch some new numbers…

According to the Florida Department of State, Division of Elections transparent by rather cryptic website, over 107k voters registered between October 11 and October 28.  According to the DSDE’s website, “Pursuant to a court order, Florida’s voter registration deadline for the 2016 General Election was extended from October 11 to 5:00 PM on October 18. The Department of State’s Division of Elections is committed to ensuring that all eligible Floridians who submitted a complete voter registration application by the extended voter registration deadline can vote.”

As the expert who crunched the numbers for the plaintiffs in that federal lawsuit (Florida Democratic Party v. Richard Scott) I’m obviously interested in the numbers of new registrants.

For some reason, DSDE’s website of daily activity reports provides only the “total number of voter registration applications verified and made active, and voter registration applications in the verification process, on or after October 11.”

Here’s the final running count provided by DSDE.

Date Applications Verified & Active (Registered Voters)
10/11/16 – 10/28/16 (4:12 PM) 107,085

I’m not sure why October 11 registrations are provided as the start date of the running total, as that was the regular final day (bookclosing) to register to vote in Florida prior to the court’s extended week of VR.  The DSDE’s processed voter registration dates also run through October 28; these voters who were processed after the October 18 extension should be eligible to cast regular ballots in the November 2016 General Election, as the DSDE states that, “The Department will be providing updated daily numbers until the state provides statistical bookclosing (voter registration) reports for the upcoming General Election.” [emphasis added]

Below are the party and demographic breakdowns of the 90,695 Floridians who were successfully processed by the state’s 67 county SOEs and the DSDE and recorded in the statewide voter file as being registered to vote on October 12 (the first extended day per the court’s order) through October 18, 2016.

PARTY

Democrats: 28,357 (31%)

Republicans: 23,410 (26%)

NPAs: 36,414 (40%)

3rd Parties: 2,514 (3%)

 

RACE/ETHNICITY

Black: 10,782 (12%)

Hispanic: 19,239 (21%)

White: 45,050 (50%)

All Others: 15,624 (17%)

 

AGE

18-29: 32,448 (36%)

30-44: 22,939 (25%)

45-59: 18,042 (20%)

60-105: 13,810 (4%)

Other (Pre-Registrant; Over-105; Redacted): 3,456

 

These October 2016 figures comport to my expert report in the FDP v. Scott lawsuit, where I find that in 2012, the more than 116,000 individuals who successfully registered to vote in the final six days before the October 9, 2012 bookclosing were disproportionately more likely to be racial/ethnic minorities and younger (I was not asked to look at the party of the registrants by the plaintiffs).

Gaining a hour of sleep (work) feels pretty good, but not nearly as good as I feel having done my part to extend the voter registration deadline in Florida.  Pretty amazing what a little tweet can do…

scott_vr_matthew

As of this morning,some 5.7m Floridians have voted.  Of the state’s 12.7m active voters, that’s a turnout rate 44.5% ahead of Tuesday’s election (and with ballots still to be tabulated from today and in many large counties tomorrow that have EIP voting; and thousands of domestic mail ballots are still to arrive by Election Day.)

So, who are the 7m or so active Floridians who have not yet voted, or have not yet returned their mail ballots? Why have they chosen to subject themselves to the continual bombardment of phone calls, direct mail, and door knocks by anxious campaigners?

Of the 2.6m active registered Democrats still waiting to be inspired, 1.2m are  white, 775k are black, and 446k are Hispanic.

On the Republican side of those still on the sidelines, 1.9m of the 2.3m who haven’t voted are white, and 264k are Hispanics.

Perhaps most crucial to the presidential and US Senate elections are the nearly 2m NPAs who have yet to vote. Of these anti-party, party-pessimists, or party-poopers, 1.1m are white, 440k are Hispanic, and 178k are black.

The presidential election could well be decided by which campaign is able to convince, cajole, or carry these potential voters to the polls.

Time to get to work, campaign operatives!

Here’s the racial/ethnic breakdown by gender of the 2.26m Republicans who have voted Early-In-Person or have had their Vote-by-Mail ballots processed by the the state’s 67 Supervisors of Elections through yesterday, November 5, 21016.

republican-gender-raceethnic-breakdown-2016-thru-nov-4

[corrected composition %s]

 

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