Archives for category: Republican

William D. Hicks, Seth C. McKee, and Daniel A. Smith, “The Determinants of State Legislator Support for Restrictive Voter ID Laws,” State Politics and Policy Quarterly 16:4 (December): 411-31.

 

Abstract

We examine state legislator behavior on restrictive voter identification (ID) bills from 2005 to 2013. Partisan polarization of state lawmakers on voter ID laws is well known, but we know very little with respect to other determinants driving this political division. A major shortcoming of extant research evaluating the passage of voter ID bills stems from using the state legislature as the unit of analysis. We depart from existing scholarship by using the state legislator as our unit of analysis, and we cover the entirety of the period when restrictive voter ID laws became a frequent agenda item in state legislatures. Beyond the obviously significant effect of party affiliation, we find a notable relationship between the racial composition of a member’s district, region, and electoral competition and the likelihood that a state lawmaker supports a voter ID bill. Democratic lawmakers representing substantial black district populations are more opposed to restrictive voter ID laws, whereas Republican legislators with substantial black district populations are more supportive. We also find Southern lawmakers (particularly Democrats) are more opposed to restrictive voter ID legislation. In particular, we find black legislators in the South are the least supportive of restrictive voter ID bills, which is likely tied to the historical context associated with state laws restricting electoral participation. Finally, in those state legislatures where electoral competition is not intense, polarization over voter ID laws is less stark, which likely reflects the expectation that the reform will have little bearing on the outcome of state legislative contests.

 

Full article available here:

Working on fumes, so this will be quick.

One day (“Souls to the Poll”) of Early-in-Person voting still to tabulate, and thousands more Vote-by-Mail ballots still to make it to election offices by 7pm on Tuesday, but we’re headed for record turnout in Florida.

Over 6.1m votes already cast, rapidly approaching the 8.5m tallied in 2012.

So, with Election Day voting still to come, the Big Q is , which party has cannibalized voters who waited 4 years ago, until Tuesday, November 6, 2012 to vote, by getting them to vote early in 2016?

Let’s start with the parties first:

So far, of the 2.43m Democrats who’ve voted early, 76% voted in 2012.  This includes slightly more than 1/2 million Dems who in 2012 waited until Election Day to cast their ballots.

Of the 2.40m Republicans who’ve cast their lot through this am, 79% voted in 2012, including 558k who voted on Tuesday, Nov. 6, 2012.

Of the 1.16m No Party Affiliates who’ve already voted in the Sunshine State, only 60% voted in 2016, but the plurality of the 2012 voters cast their ballots on Election Day.

So, Republicans are cannibalizing their 2012 likely voters at a slightly higher rate than Democrats, and both parties are drawing in their likely voters at a much higher clip than NPAs.

Flipped upside down, this means that NPAs who stayed home in 2012 are coming out a a much higher rate than the partisans.

None of this surprises me.

What is notable is that nearly 1/4 Republicans who have already cast their mail or in-person ballots in 2016 waited to vote on Election Day in 2012, whereas it’s only slightly more than 1/5 Dems and NPAs who voted on Election Day in 2012 who have already voted. That means there are more votes (raw and percentage) to be had by Clinton than Trump as the final GOTV push occurs on Tuesday.

I don’t feel like writing up the Race/Ethnicity & Age & Gender cannibalization rates right now, but suffice to say, they ain’t pretty for The Donald.

As a tease, I’ll leave you with this tidbit: So far, 36% of the 907k Hispanics who have voted in 2016 didn’t vote by any method in 2012. That’s a full 12 points higher than whites, and will likely be the key to who wins the presidency.

As of this morning,some 5.7m Floridians have voted.  Of the state’s 12.7m active voters, that’s a turnout rate 44.5% ahead of Tuesday’s election (and with ballots still to be tabulated from today and in many large counties tomorrow that have EIP voting; and thousands of domestic mail ballots are still to arrive by Election Day.)

So, who are the 7m or so active Floridians who have not yet voted, or have not yet returned their mail ballots? Why have they chosen to subject themselves to the continual bombardment of phone calls, direct mail, and door knocks by anxious campaigners?

Of the 2.6m active registered Democrats still waiting to be inspired, 1.2m are  white, 775k are black, and 446k are Hispanic.

On the Republican side of those still on the sidelines, 1.9m of the 2.3m who haven’t voted are white, and 264k are Hispanics.

Perhaps most crucial to the presidential and US Senate elections are the nearly 2m NPAs who have yet to vote. Of these anti-party, party-pessimists, or party-poopers, 1.1m are white, 440k are Hispanic, and 178k are black.

The presidential election could well be decided by which campaign is able to convince, cajole, or carry these potential voters to the polls.

Time to get to work, campaign operatives!

Here’s the racial/ethnic breakdown by gender of the 2.26m Republicans who have voted Early-In-Person or have had their Vote-by-Mail ballots processed by the the state’s 67 Supervisors of Elections through yesterday, November 5, 21016.

republican-gender-raceethnic-breakdown-2016-thru-nov-4

[corrected composition %s]

 

The story of the election in Florida thus far is that No Party Affiliates and Hispanics who sat out (or who’ve registered since the 2012 General Election) appear to be much more engaged in the Florida election than other partisan or racial/ethnic groups.

Over 1/3 NPAs — 33.7% — who’ve already voted (EIP or VBM) in Florida through yesterday, Saturday October 29,  did not cast a ballot in the Sunshine State in 2012.

In contrast, only 18.2% of Republicans who’ve voted thus far didn’t vote in 2012; 1/5 Democrats who’ve voted EIP or ABS through yesterday sat out 2012.

So, although overall numbers through the first six days of EIP (and months-long VBM ballots coming in) aren’t looking terribly robust for Democrats–they’re down 23.5k votes to Republicans — it appears that they are mobilizing a larger share of “new” voters.

The Republican lead thus far, on the other hand, is being floated by disproportionately by likely voters, that is, those who voted in the 2012 General Election. Republicans are also cannibalizing 2012 Election Day voters at a higher rate than Democrats: 18.7% of the 1.51m Republicans who’ve voted thus far in Florida waited in 2012 to cast a ballot on Election Day; 16.8% of the 1.43m Democrats who’ve voted to date voted on Election Day four years ago.

2016-by-2012-vote-method-party-thru-oct-29

Similar trends can be seen along racial/ethnic categories of voters. Over 29% of the 476k Hispanics who’ve cast ballots thru yesterday are either new to the registration books or skipped the 2012 election. This is true for only 1/5 of the 2.5m white voters who’ve voted, and 17% of the 391k black voters who’ve cast ballots thus far in 2016.

2016-by-2012-vote-method-race-ethnicity-thru-oct-29

So, what does this all mean?

Florida’s electorate is dynamic. Millions of new voters have registered since the 2012 General Election. Florida’s electoral rules are also fluid, changing back and forth since the 2008 election. As such, the modes of voting by Florida voters is in flux, with voters shifting from one method to another (as I’ve published extensively elsewhere).

As a result, one should be weary of pollsters who model their surveys on expected vote using 2012 voting patterns (if they even have them!), as objects in the mirror may appear closer (or farther) than they they really are.

All I’ll say is there still lots of voting to be done in Florida.

I guess I’m glad to see they’re covering their bases….

DISCLAIMER: The Florida Third Party Voter Registration (3PVRO) database is not intended, nor should it be used, as a source for Florida voter registration statistics. The 3PVRO database reflects the cumulative number of voter registration applications submitted by a 3PVRO to the state since the time of a 3PVRO’s registration. Please note that a voter application submitted by a political party does not necessarily translate directly into a voter registered for that party as all 3PVROs must collect and submit registrations regardless of party affiliation.

FDOE’s disclosure is new. It hasn’t been there any of the previous times I’ve grabbed the publicly available data from the Division’s website. Just wondering who might have directed Secretary of State Detzner to have his staff post the disclaimer after my blog post called out the RPOF’s pathetic voter registration efforts.  Any guesses, folks?

 

Again, the math doesn’t add up.  CNN’s exit poll of Florida voters reports that 16% self-reported Republicans who voted in the Florida PPP as being “latino” [sic].

We know that prior to Election Day, of the more than 1.2m registered Republicans who had already voted, more than 86% self-identified as “white” when they registered to vote.  Only 10.3% marked on their voter registration cards that they were “Hispanic.”

It’s stretches the imagination, then, that one in five of the 1.16m Republicans who voted on Election Day (some 254k) were Hispanic voters.  Sure, some 192k Republican Hispanics didn’t vote early in Miami-Dade, but chances are, a few of them also stayed home on Election Day.  Indeed, there were less than 400k Republican Hispanics statewide who had yet to vote on Election Day.  Nearly every one of them would have had to have voted on Election Day in order for the CNN exit poll figure for Hispanic turnout to map out.

With such dubious baseline figures, I’d throw caution to the wind for anyone digging any deeper into the CNN exit poll crosstabs in Florida.  One wonders how far off the exit polls are in the other states that have had primaries?

I will be digging into this some more as time permits. Although I can’t find a link to the exit poll methodology or how weighting was done, I’m assuming CNN drew its sample of 1907 Republicans not only from Election Day voters, but sampled early in-person and called absentee voters who cast ballots ahead of the March 15, 2016 PPP in Florida.

But some quick observations of the marginals…

First, and most glaringly, I am hard-pressed to believe that only 39% of Republican respondents were 60+.  Sure, Election Day voters tend to be younger than convenience voters (early in-person and absentee mail), but my analysis of the statewide voter file and absentee and early in-person voting indicates that of the nearly 1.2m Republicans who voted prior to Election Day, 63.4% were 60+.

So, some simple arithmetic: A total of nearly 2.36m votes were cast by Republicans in the PPP; less than half of the total (roughly 1.16m) were cast on Election Day.  If CNN’s exit poll is accurate, that 39% of Republican voters were 60+, it would mean that 919.9k of the 2.36m Republican voters were in this group of older voters. But roughly 756.9k Republicans 60+ had already voted early (in-person and absentee), which leaves only 163k Republicans over 60 to show up on Election Day.  That would mean that only 1 in 8 of the 1.64m Republican voters who showed up on Election Day were 60+.

That’s just not credible.

This is not the first time I’ve found problems with CNN’s exit polls; its 2014 General Election exit polling breakdown for the age of voters was also way off.

But we’ll know for sure about the accuracy of CNN’s 2016 PPP exit polls in Florida next month.

Floridians wanting to participate in the March 15, 2016 presidential preference primary had until February 16 to either register to vote or change their party registration to Democrat or Republican in order to vote in either closed primary.

Between February 1 and February 16, more than 36k Floridians became newly registered voters during the final run-up to the registration deadline. Roughly one-third of them cast ballots prior to Election Day.  Some 5.4k newly registered Democratic voted (3.4k cast early in-person ballots and 2.0k mailed in their absentee ballots), and 6.1k newly registered Republicans voted (3.7k early in-person and 2.4k absentee ballots).  A smattering of newly registered NPAs and 3rd party registrants also voted before Election Day.

We won’t know until next month if the 24k other newly registered voters waited to cast ballots on Election Day.  We’ll never know (because the state of Florida doesn’t track this) if those who voted, or those who waited until Election Day or didn’t vote at all, opted-in to register at DMV offices or other state or federal agencies that are required to ask voters if they’d like to register. My Ph.D. graduate student, Lia Merivaki, is looking into questions like these in her dissertation. It will be interesting to see if the ongoing implementation of online voter registration across many states (and in Florida, in 2017), or automatic registration (which is already in effect in Oregon and will be in California), will lead to these new registrants voting, or deciding not to exercise their franchise.

If it’s the later, turnout rates will likely take a tip dip due to an inflated denominator of registered voters who didn’t opt when applying for their driver’s license or other services.

As of this morning, some 1.269m absentee ballots have been counted in the Florida election. The number will continue to trickle up in the coming days as county canvassing boards examine the overseas mail ballots coming in over the next week.

Republicans cast 719.1k absentee ballots. Thus far, .56% of them were rejected by canvassing boards due to voter error (likely a mismatched or invalid signature); another .27% were rejected because they lacked an accompanying signature on the return envelope.  So, nearly 99.2% of GOP absentee ballots were valid.

On the Democratic side, nearly 524.8k were received by county SOEs. Slightly less than 99% were processed as valid (98.97%, to be exact). Of the rejected Democratic mail ballots, .61% had a voter error and .42% lacked a signature on the envelope.

Only 21.7k NPAs cast ballots, and roughly 10k more by 3rd party registrants.

More analysis, as time permits, on the partisan/racial/ethnic/age breakdown of absentee ballots as time permits…

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