How did Heavily Haitian Precincts in Florida Vote in the 2016 General Election? (Let’s just say, I expect Trumpian Ron DeSantis to do even worse than Trump.)

The precincts below have at least 100 Hatian-born naturalized citizens who voted in the 2016 General Election, and at least 50% of those who turned out in the precinct are black (according to the statewide voter file). Most of these heavily Haitian precincts are in Miami-Dade County, but several others are in Palm Beach and Broward counties. There are even a couple in Orange County. Despite having druthers over (or downright anger towards) the Clinton Foundation and its overt meddling over the years in Haitian elections and ineffective disaster relief, every one of these heavily Haitian precincts went heavily for Hillary, most with well above 80% of the two-party vote.

Republican gubernatorial candidate Ron DeSantis’ comment, that Florida shouldn’t “monkey this up” by electing Democrat nominee, Andrew Gillum, only adds to the pile President Trump started when he referred to Haiti and some African nations as “shithole countries.”

Haiti 2016 precinct vote

Get it while it’s hot! “Election Daze: Voting Modes and Voter Preferences in the 2016 Presidential Election” (with Seth McKee and Trey Hood)

Daniel A. Smith, Seth C. McKee, and M. V. “Trey” Hood III, “Election Daze: Voting Modes and Voter Preferences in the 2016 Presidential Election,” Florida Political Chronicle 25:2 (2018), 123-141.

ABSTRACT: To say that the outcome of the 2016 Presidential Election was a surprise to many political experts would easily qualify as an understatement for the ages. Nonetheless, in defense of the political handicappers, there is notable evidence that the dynamics of voter choice in the days leading up to the last day of voting were differentiable from preferences registered on Election Day. That is, in some states it would seem that Hillary Clinton (Democrat) was advantaged by early voting and Donald Trump (Republican) was favored by voters who came to the polls on Election Day. This paper draws on aggregate- and individual-level data from Florida to examine voting across racial/ethnic groups, distinguishing between votes cast on Election Day with those cast early in-person and by mail in the 2016 Presidential Election. The paper also compares variation across modes of voting in 2016 with 2012 county-level Presidential Election returns. By leveraging original datasets that merge the modes of voting for different groups with aggregate presidential results, as well as using 2016 Cooperative Congressional Election Study (CCES) individual-level data, we are able to determine the extent to which the story of Trump’s historic Presidential victory hinged on the support he garnered from voters who showed up on the final day of voting.

Available here.

“We can’t just keep setting up blue-ribbon committees with your wife and your wife and your husband, and they meet and they have a meal and they talk, talk talk talk, two hours later, then they write a report.” — Donald Trump

Guess it’s time to re-up this classic published in Presidential Studies Quarterly nearly 20 years ago, “Predicting the Outcomes of Presidential Commissions: Evidence from the Johnson and Nixon Years.”

Available here.

I’m wondering whether Trump, while stumping in Pittsburgh, was subconsciously referring to his failed Presidential Commission on Voter Fraud. A senior advisor told CNN that the commission led by Kansas Secretary of State, Kris Kobach, was a “shit show,” and that Vice President Mike Pence viewed the commission “as a shit sandwich,” which as my colleague Michael McDonald explained on the stand last week to Kobach, may be harsh, but really is a term of affection when used on Twitter.