since it’s something I’ve written about in my report for the @ACLUFL, and since they lie at the heart of Bill Nelson’s Nelson Complaint in federal court challenging invalidated mail ballots due to mismatched signatures.
To date, roughly 72% of all ballots cast early in-person and by mail in Florida as of Sunday have been by voters who cast ballots four years ago in the 2014 midterm elections.
In one of the better signs for Democrats, Republicans have cannibalized more of their Super-voters thus far: 76.6% of votes cast by Republicans have been by those who voted in 2014. Slightly fewer, 71.5%, of votes cast by Democrats have been by those who voted in 2014 (so, by definition, no newly registered 18 & 19 year olds). The most interesting development thus far is that only 60.7% of votes cast by No Party Affiliates have been by those who skipped (or were not yet registered) in the 2014 midterms. Of course, NPAs have cast fewer than half of votes cast by either Republicans or Democrats.
The daily patterns are remarkably similar across the three groups, as the figures below reveal. Regular voters were much more likely to vote by mail, earlier in the cycle; more infrequent voters started to tick up during the first week of early in-person voting.
I plan to provide similar figures in the coming days, focusing on age and race, broken down by 2014 voters and nonvoters.