“Voting by Mail and Ballot Rejection: Lessons from Florida for Elections in the Age of the Coronavirus”
Federal Judge Hinkle’s ruling is here.
Anna Baringer, Michael C. Herron, and Daniel A. Smith, available here.
The COVID-19 pandemic and its concomitant need for social distancing have increased the attractiveness of voting by mail. This form of voting is nonetheless not a panacea for election administration in the time of a public health crisis, as a widespread move to ballots cast by voting by mail risks exacerbating existing inequities in mail-in ballot rejection rates across voters and jurisdictions. This motivates our examination of the roughly 9.6 million and 8.2 million ballots cast in the 2016 and 2018 general elections in Florida, respectively, including over 2.6 million vote-by-mail (VBM) ballots cast in each. Using a selection model that analyzes all ballots cast and those VBM ballots not counted in Florida in these two elections, we find that younger voters, voters not registered with a major political party, and voters in need of assistance when voting are disproportionately likely to have their VBM ballots not count. We also find disproportionately high rejection rates of mail ballots cast by Hispanic voters, out-of-state voters, and military dependents in the 2018 general election. Lastly, we find significant variation in the rejection rates of VBM ballots cast across Florida’s 67 counties in the 2018 election, suggesting a non-uniformity in the way local election officials verify these ballots. As interest in expanding mail voting swells as a consequence of the novel coronavirus, protecting the rights of all voters to participate in electoral politics requires a characterization of the correlates of VBM ballot rejection with an eye toward considering how disparities in ballot rejection rates might be rectified.
It’s like Groundhog Day all over again. Republican-controlled Florida legislature is at it again in the 2020 legislative session, cracking down on the right of citizens to collect signatures and have fellow citizens vote on constitutional amendments.
Senate Bill 1794 and House Bill 7037 will impose even more obstacles on the initiative process.
On Tuesday, the Florida House Judiciary Committee proposed PCB CDJ 19-01, a cynical power grab by the majority party to crack down on the citizen initiative process. Over the past 20 years, Floridians, in a state dominated by Republican lawmakers, have consistently approved progressive ballot measures–from High Speed Rail, to Raising the Minimum Wage, to Fair Redistricting, to Medial Marijuana, to Felon Re-infranchisment. When fellow citizens place these statewide constitutional amendments on the ballot for public consumption, Florida voters consistently gobble them up.
Now Republican lawmakers want to crackdown on the initiative process itself, changing the rules of the game so as to stymie future efforts to have citizens approve statewide ballot issues the majority party can easily bury in the legislative process.
PCB CDJ 19-01 is not the only attack on the process of direct democracy in Florida this session. SJR 232 would require citizen-initiated constitutional amendments to…
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