The following analysis comes from an extensive database my team and I have put together. It combines individual-level information of Florida voters (including where they were born) with precinct-level results.
The following graph plots precinct-level results. The size of the precincts are scaled to the total votes cast in a precinct in the 2016 General Election. The Y-Axis is vote two-party share for Trump and Clinton. The X-Axis is the proportion of Hispanic voters in the precinct who are Cuban-born. Each precinct has at least 100 Cuban-born voters and at least 50% of voters were Hispanic.
As the LOWESS curves reveal, as the share of voters who are Cuban-born Hispanics increases, Trump’s share of the two-party vote steadily increases, intersecting with Clinton’s share of the vote around 42 percent of Cuban-born Hispanics, but then peaking at roughly 55 percent of the vote when the proportion of Cuban-born Hispanic voters reaches roughly 50 percent.
Although Trump won more than 60 percent of the two-party vote in a handful of these majority Hispanic precincts with a prevalence of Cuban-born voters, in Miami-Dade Precinct 335 (Hialeah), where 60 percent of the Hispanics who cast ballots were Cuban-born, Trump won less than 45 percent of the two-party vote.
As of this morning, here’s the received mail ballots by party, with a daily comparison with 2012. More here.
Not surprisingly, whites are far exceeding racial and ethnic minorities in the share of absentee ballots that have been returned as of this morning’s reporting period.
Of the 885.7k ballots received, 76.5% have been cast by white voters. 87% of the 369k Republicans who have voted are white; roughly 10% of Republican ballots have been cast by Hispanics and less than 1% by blacks.
Slightly more than 66% of the 357k Democrats who have voted are white. So far, Hispanics have cast 17% of Democratic ballots and blacks another 12%.
Perhaps the biggest story is that women are far exceeding men in the vote-by-mail ballots that have so far been returned: 55% of all ballots have been cast by women and 44% by men, with the remainder cast by those whose gender is not reported.
Geographically, Miami-Dade leads the way, accounting for over 10% of all VBM cast. Another 9% come from Broward, and Palm Beach accounts for 7% of all VBM cast. The other top VBM counties are Hillsborough 6.5% Orange 6%; Pinellas another 5%; and Duval 4.6%.
My colleague, Mike McDonald, is mapping Florida VBMs by county in 2016 relative to the 2012 totals, here.