In Florida, NPAs Outpacing 2012 Vote-by-Mail Daily Ballots Received by SOEs, while Democrats Close the Gap

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Through yesterday, October 19, Republicans had returned 12,832 more vote-by-mail ballots than Democrats.

However, as of this time four years ago–that is, 20 days prior to the November 6, 2012 General Election–Republicans led Democrats by more than 28,400 absentee ballot returns. Democrats have closed the absentee ballot gap in Florida.

In 2012, at this moment, Republicans accounted for nearly 45% of all absentee ballots cast; as of yesterday, in the 2016 election, that percentage was less than 42%.

But the reason that Democrats are closing the gap is due in large part to the share of vote-by-mail ballots being cast by No Party Affiliates in 2016: as of yesterday, 68,000 more NPAs have had their vote-by-mail ballots received by local SOEs as compared to October 17, 2012.

Of course, what we might be witnessing is a shift in the mode by which voters cast their ballots, something that I’ve written extensively about with Dr. Michael Herron.

2.09m votes already cast in Florida as polls opened this morning. Party, Race/Ethnicity, Age Breakdowns here:

When precincts opened their doors this morning at 7am, more than 2.09m Floridians had already cast their ballots.

Nearly 1.17m out of the 4.56m active and inactive registered Republicans in the state had cast early in-person or absentee ballots ahead of Election Day, or 25.6% of all registered Republicans.

Nearly 865k out of the 5.04m active and inactive registered Democrats in the state had cast early in-person or absentee ballots ahead of Election Day, or 17.2% of all registered Democrats.

An additional 52.8k NPAs and 3rd party registrants cast ballots (but not for the GOP or Democratic nominees), as did another 3.6k (out of the 28.9k) who registered to vote between February 1 and February 16, the last day to register to vote in the presidential preference primary election.

Older voters in both parties came out in force.  739.3k (63%) of all Republican ballots cast prior to Election Day were cast by voters 60 and older. 514.5k (59%) of all Democratic ballots cast prior to Election Day were cast by voters 60 and older.Only 50.3k Republican and 59.8k Democrats under the age of 30 voted during the early voting period or by absentee ballot.

Sliced differently, only 8.7% of all registered Republicans under 30 and only 7% of all registered Democrats under 30 have voted prior to Election Day, whereas nearly 40% of all registered Republicans over 60 and 29% of all registered Democrats over 60 cast ballots ahead of today, March 15, 2016.

What about the partisan breakdown along racial/ethnic lines?

Slightly more than 1m white Republicans have cast ballots, nearly ten times the 119.5k Hispanic Republicans who voted early in-person and absentee.

Among Democratic early and absentee voters, 547k are white,86.9k are Hispanic, and 191.5k are black.

 

 

 

 

Florida’s Election Day is a Week Away, but as of this morning, 1.265 million Floridians have already voted. Details:

As I’ve noted, as of this morning:

15.1% of the state’s registered 4.56m Republicans have voted absentee and early in-person ballots.  Around 14.5% of the 511k Hispanics registered as Republicans have cast ballots and 15.5% of the 3.81m white Republicans have voted.

On the Democratic side, 10.8% of the state’s 5.033m registered Democrats have cast early in-person and absentee ballots. Roughly 7.3% of the state’s 1.44m black Democrats, 7.2% of the 757.3k Hispanic Democrats, and 14.2% of the state’s 2.56m white Democrats have voted.

What about Millennials?

Of the roughly 2.31m registered voters under 30 in Florida, 2.3% have voted thus far. Contrast that with the 18.5% turnout of registered voters 60 and over.

Of the 578.0k registered Republicans under 30, 3.9% have voted.

Of the 847.5k registered Democrats under 30, 3.3% have voted.

The reason why voting among the under-30 crowd in Florida is so low is because some 819k voters under the age of 30 are registered as No Party Affiliate, and thus are excluded from the parties’ primaries.