Tag Archives: Democrats

OK, there’s been a tremendous amount written on voter registration trends, by party, in Florida. It’s all wrong. Here’s why.

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I’ve published quite a bit on the topic, served as an expert witness in dozens of successful lawsuits, and know these files inside and out.

Here are the facts, using proper voter files (i.e., contemporaneous), comparing Jan-July 2016 registration numbers with Jan-July 2020 voter registration numbers, comparing apples to apples.

To look at new registrations (that is, how the parties and groups are doing on the ground), you cannot merely use the Florida Division of Elections summary files to figure this out, as I explained four years ago, here.

OK, here are the numbers. Comparable voter registration, as of July 1, 2020, was down by a total of 136,392 registrants. And Democrats and Republicans both account for 32.1% of new registrants over the first six months of the year.

New Registrations by Party, January-June, 2016 vs. January-June 2020

Dem Rep NPA 3rd Total
Jan-June 2016 152,320 131,059 149,090 10,273 442,742
34.4% 29.6% 33.7% 2.3% 100.0%
Jan-June 2020 98,439 98,472 99,879 9,560 306,350
32.1% 32.1% 32.6% 3.1% 100.0%
Difference (2020-2016) -53,881 -32,587 -49,211 -713 -136,392
-2.3% 2.5% -1.1% 0.8%

 

So, cut these numbers as you will, but by no means can it be said that Democrats are killing it out there.  In fact, a total of 33 more Republicans registered to vote anew between January 1 and June 30 (and remained registered as of June 30) than newly registered Democrats.

COVID-19 is obviously the major reason why Democratic numbers are down, as nonpartisan groups who usually hit the ground are not as active, SOEs who usually are in the schools preregistering young voters had no classrooms to go to in April or May, etc.  We’ve seen this pattern before, in 2011, after the Republican legislature passed HB 1355, which, among other things, cracked down on voter registration efforts by 3PVROs, as Michael Herron and I have written about before.

Perhaps Democrats and their allies will turn it around before the October registration date. Young voters who register immediately before an election in Florida are more likely to turn out in that proximate election, as Enrijeta Shino and I find, but their turnout levels aren’t sustained in subsequent elections, casting some doubt on the habitualization of voting.

But until we get some book closing numbers, the data are what they are. Republicans, as a proportion of new registrants in Florida, are doing better than they did four years ago over the first six months of the presidential election year.

Over 1.1 Million Floridians have Already Voted Early, Including 412k who were Registered but Skipped the 2012 GE

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Of the roughly 13.8m voters who are registered in Florida, 42% of them — some 5.8 million registered voters — either skipped the 2012 General Election (even though they were registered to vote), or registered to vote over the past four years.

How many of these infrequent Florida voters have turned out in 2016, either casting a vote-by-mail ballot or voting early in-person?

Crunching the numbers, as of this morning more than 1.1 million votes have been cast by voters who either opted to sit on the sidelines, or who were not yet registered to vote in the Sunshine State in 2012 when Barack Obama narrowly beat Mitt Romney.

That’s right, through Wednesday, November 2, with just six days to go before Election Day, over 1.1m have been cast by “new” voters — that is, voters who didn’t participate in the 2012 General Election.

Who are these suddenly energized folks? “Trumpkins”? “Lazy Ds”? Notoriously low-turnout No Party Affiliates?

Let’s go to the numbers…

Of the 1.1m who’ve cast ballots in 2016 but who sat out or weren’t eligible to vote in 2012, 37% are Democrats, 33% are Republicans, and 27% are NPAs.

By race/ethnicity, most of the 2012 GE-skippers are white (63%), but Hispanics make up 19%, with the share of black registrants over 9%.  Over 51% of these 2016 early voters who didn’t vote in 2012 are women, and 44% men, with the balance comprised of those with an unrecorded gender.

Of the 1.1m who’ve already voted in 2016, roughly 412k were registered in time to vote in the 2012 GE but opted to stay home.

Who are they?

Of these 412k newly energized voters who skipped 2012, 38% some might call “Lazy Ds”, 33% might very well be awakened “Trumpkins”, and 26% may be NPAs who in 2012 couldn’t be bothered by making a choice between Obama and Romney.  Of course, there are numerous other reasons for why these registered voters stayed home in 2012 but have chosen to vote in 2016 — perhaps some of them are #NeverTrump Republicans who can stand their party’s flag bearer, or perhaps some are Democrats who couldn’t stomach voting for Obama for a second term in 2012 and didn’t bother voting.

In my next post, I’ll look at the 723k voters who have cast ballots in 2016 who registered to vote in Florida after the 2012 General Election.