Cannibals, All! Which Party in Florida has been Cannibalizing more of its 2014 midterm election voters?

To date, roughly 72% of all ballots cast early in-person and by mail in Florida as of Sunday have been by voters who cast ballots four years ago in the 2014 midterm elections.

In one of the better signs for Democrats, Republicans have cannibalized more of their Super-voters thus far: 76.6% of votes cast by Republicans have been by those who voted in 2014.  Slightly fewer, 71.5%, of votes cast by Democrats have been by those who voted in 2014 (so, by definition, no newly registered 18 & 19 year olds).  The most interesting development thus far is that only 60.7% of votes cast by No Party Affiliates have been by those who skipped (or were not yet registered) in the 2014 midterms.  Of course, NPAs have cast fewer than half of votes cast by either Republicans or Democrats.

The daily patterns are remarkably similar across the three groups, as the figures below reveal.  Regular voters were much more likely to vote by mail, earlier in the cycle; more infrequent voters started to tick up during the first week of early in-person voting.CannabalizeDemOct28CannabalizeRepOct28CannabalizeNPAOct28

I plan to provide similar figures in the coming days, focusing on age and race, broken down by 2014 voters and nonvoters.

Heading into Election Day, over 6.4m Early Votes have been Cast in Florida. Here’s the Race/Ethnicity and Party Breakdown by Gender

Ahead of Election Day, 2.56m Democrats have cast ballots, 2.47m Republicans have cast ballots, 1.24m No Party Affiliates have cast ballots, and 154k voters registered with 3rd Parties have cast ballots.

3.52m women and 2.76m men have voted, with another 139k votes cast by voters whose gender is not reported.

And by race/ethnicity, 4.23m whites, 980k Hispanics, 841k blacks, and 375k voters of mixed, other or unknown race have cast ballots.

By gender, what follows are tables with the share of votes cast across party registration for each racial/ethnic group.

Percent of Early Votes Cast by Women
Other Black Hispanic White Total
Dem 43.9 88.2 43.2 34.2 44.1
Rep 23.4 2.2 27.4 47.2 36.2
NPA 30.9 9.0 28.2 16.1 17.7
3rd 1.8 0.7 1.3 2.6 2.0
Total 100 100 100 100 100
Percent of Early Votes Cast by Men
Other Black Hispanic White Total
Dem 37.0 81.4 38.1 26.3 34.6
Rep 25.8 4.0 31.0 51.8 42.2
NPA 34.8 13.1 29.2 18.5 20.3
3rd 2.4 1.5 1.7 3.4 2.9