Archives for posts with tag: Election

Still trying to figure out how to best visualize Trump’s overwhelming victory on Election Day in Florida. The following panel of figures draw on precinct-level data that our Election Sciences team at UF has helped me collect. The data presented here show only the precincts in the state in which white voters made up at least 75% of the votes cast for each method of voting (Election Day, Early In-Person, and Vote-by-Mail), and that had at least 100 ballots cast for each method.  In other words, these are heavily white precincts where whites cast at least 75% of all ballots cast for each method of voting.

Running along the X-Axis is the proportion of the overall vote that Trump won (so, from 0% to 100%). The height of each vertical bar (there are a total of 60 bars) constitutes the fraction of the total votes Trump received — that is, add them all up and they equal 100% of Trump’s total votes by each method). The red vertical line in each panel is set at .5, or precincts in which Trump won 50% of the total votes cast.

Trump by Precincts3

As should be clear, Trump crushed it Election Days in these predominantly white precincts. The peak of the very tight normal distribution curve for Election Day voters in precincts where three-fourths of the votes cast were by white voters is greater than 65%.  Trump did not do nearly as well (relatively speaking) among vote-by-mail voters in predominantly white precincts; he fared better with predominantly white precincts whose voters cast early in-person ballots.

Stay tuned for similar graphs with Trump’s support among predominantly Hispanic precincts, broken down by method of vote.

Look forward to joining USF’s Dr. Susan MacManus tonight at the Bob Graham Center at Pugh Hall, University of Florida, for our Election Recap.

Should be Live Streaming here.

Monday, November 14, 2016 – 6:00 pm

Two of Florida’s most prominent political commentators, Susan MacManus and Dan Smith, will discuss the results and implications of the 2016 elections at the Bob Graham Center on Monday, Nov. 14 at 6 p.m. in Pugh Hall.

Dr. Susan MacManus, Florida’s most-quoted political scientist, is a Distinguished University Professor at the University of South Florida in the Department of Government and International Affairs. Since 2008, she has been a featured columnist on sayfiereview.com—a widely-read Florida-based political website. MacManus has appeared as a panelist on WFLA TV’s Road to the White House program which was nominated for a Suncoast Emmy award in 2008. Aside from authoring numerous books, she has also appeared on every major cable television and radio network and has been interviewed by several major newspapers in Florida, the U.S., and abroad.

Dr. Daniel Smith is a University of Florida Research Foundation (2010-2012) Professor of Political Science at the University of Florida. He is fundamentally interested in how political institutions affect political behavior across the United States. He has published more than eighty scholarly articles and numerous books on the politics and process of direct democracy and voting rights and elections in the U.S.

Here’s the race/ethnic share of the 549k Democrats, 588k Republicans, 272k NPAs, and 35k 3rd party voters who didn’t vote in 2012 but who cast ballots ahead of Election Day.

Dem Rep NPA 3rd Total
Other 5.0 3.2 9.3 4.19 5.1
Black 23.2 0.87 5.7 3.9 10.3
Hisp. 18.5 12.9 25.8 10.2 17.4
White 53.3 83.1 59.2 81.8 67.2
Total 100 100 100 100 100

And inversely, here’s party breakdown for the 73k other, 149k blacks, 251k Hispanics, and 970k whites who’ve already voted but who didn’t vote in 2012..

Dem Rep NPA 3rd Total
Other 37.9 25.4 34.8 2.0 100
Black 85.3 3.4 10.4 0.9 100
Hisp. 40.5 30.2 27.9 1.4 100
White 30.1 50.4 16.6 3.0 100
Total 38.0 40.7 18.8 2.4 100

 

Most importantly, here’s the breakdown of the analysis of the Florida electorate that I’ll be crunching tomorrow…

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