How did Trump do among Cuban-born voters in Florida?

The following analysis comes from an extensive database my team and I have put together. It combines individual-level information of Florida voters (including where they were born) with precinct-level results.

The following graph plots precinct-level results. The size of the precincts are scaled to the total votes cast in a precinct in the 2016 General Election.  The Y-Axis is vote two-party share for Trump and Clinton. The X-Axis is the proportion of Hispanic voters in the precinct who are Cuban-born. Each precinct has at least 100 Cuban-born voters and at least 50% of voters were Hispanic.

As the LOWESS curves reveal, as the share of voters who are Cuban-born Hispanics increases, Trump’s share of the two-party vote steadily increases, intersecting with Clinton’s share of the vote around 42 percent of Cuban-born Hispanics, but then peaking at roughly 55 percent of the vote when the proportion of Cuban-born Hispanic voters reaches roughly 50 percent.

Although Trump won more than 60 percent of the two-party vote in a handful of these majority Hispanic precincts with a prevalence of Cuban-born voters, in Miami-Dade Precinct 335 (Hialeah), where 60 percent of the Hispanics who cast ballots were Cuban-born, Trump won less than 45 percent of the two-party vote.

Cuban Vote for Trump Precinct PNG


Exclusive: Evidence that Democrats are Beginning to Ramp up GOTV in SE Florida (Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach), where Clinton Needs to Turn out Democrats & NPAs

As of yesterday evening, 1.15m votes have been cast in the three big SE Florida counties (so, excluding Monroe County).

There are 1.7m registered Democrats in these three Democratic-rich counties; that’s roughly 46% of the 3.7m registered voters as of October 1, 2016.

So far, Democrats have accounted for 50% of the total ballots cast (EIP and VBM). That’s a very good sign for the Clinton camp. NPAs, whose share of registered voters in the three populous counties is 27% of all registrants (slightly higher than the percentage of Republicans, at 25%), account for nearly 21% of total votes cast as of last night.  This is potentially good sign for Clinton. Why?  Because turnout of NPAs in SE Florida often is not very robust, but Clinton needs NPAs in the three counties because (as the chart below shows), the NPAs who have voted already are disproportionately more likely to be Hispanics.

Of the 234.5k NPAs who’ve already mailed in their ballots or voted in person, 42% are Hispanic, and polling suggests that Clinton is doing fine with Hispanics in SE Florida, even in Miami-Dade County.

Another good sign for Clinton is that black voters in the three counties have started to return their VBM and turn out during EIP.  Blacks make up slightly less than 19% of the registered voters in DAD, BRO, and PAL.  So far, they constitute slightly less than 18% of the total early (EIP and VBM) votes cat in SE Florida. Including today, there’s still 5 days left of early voting (including this coming Saturday and Sunday) to GOTV, so the dire warnings of low black turnout may be premature.

As I’ve said countless times, be careful reading early the early voting tea leaves…lots of voting left to be had in the Sunshine State.


Hispanic Turnout is the the Big Story in Florida…

The presidential election (and the US Senate, too) in Florida will be decided by Hispanic turnout.

Hispanics now comprise 15.6% of the state’s 12.7m active registered voters; in 2012, Hispanics comprised 13.6% of the Sunshine State’s voter rolls.

So far, as of yesterday, October 29, 2016, Hispanic voters are comprising a considerably higher percentage of voters than they did at this point in time in 2012, far exceeding their 2% point share of registered voters.

Here’s the Hispanic share of total votes cast (VBM & EIP) by all voters, 9 days out from election day, in 2016 vs. 2012.

Percentage of all Vote-by-Mail (VBM) ballots cast by Hispanics:

2016 =  12.9%
2012 = 9.5%

Percentage of all Early In-Person (EIP) ballots cast by Hispanics:

2016 = 14.2%
2012 = 9.9%

Late Night Numbers from Florida: Older Whites Dominating Early Vote-by-Mail, but Democrats Holding their Own

Of the more-than 310k vote-by-mail ballots received (not yet tallied) by Florida’s 67 SOEs, ElectionSmith, Inc. has tallied voter file information about 99.7% of those who have already voted in the presidential election. By far–over 82% — of the VBM received have been cast by white voters. Another 7% have been cast by blacks, 6% by Hispanics, and the balance other racial/ethnic groups.

Women have cast roughly 165k of the 310k VBM, accounting for roughly 53.2% of the VBM cast. That’s only slightly more than the 52.8% of women who make up active voters in the state.

Those under the age of 30–many of whom have never licked a postage stamp– have cast only 3.7% of all VBM thus far, well below the 17% of the 12.46m active voters in Florida. On the other hand, registered voters 61 and over have cast 66.6% of the VBM, nearly double the 34.3% of active voters of that age who are registered to vote.

Not surprisingly, Baby-boomers and the Greatest Generation sure do like their vote-by-mail in Florida!

Of the roughly 206k voters 61 and over who have cast VBM thus far, 87% are white. What is surprising, however, is of these 179k older white voters who’ve cast VBM thus far,  less than half (47%) are Republicans, which is less than the share of older white Republicans in the September 2016, from which these data are drawn.

Again, it’s way too early to divine too much from these VBM, not only for overall turnout or support for Trump or Clinton, but also for overall VBM figures.

To be sure, these earliest of early VBM voters are likely strongest of strong partisans, unlikely to be moved by any 11th hour revelations in the presidential campaign.

I expect there to be upwards of 3m VBM cast in Florida, so there’s still a long way to go!

Over 1.41m votes cast in Florida as of this morning…

As of this morning (March 9, 2016), over 1.41 million Floridians (out of the 13.2m registered) have cast ballots in the 2016 presidential primaries, with 994.9k voting absentee mail ballots and 417.1k voting early in-person.

Thus far, 772.8m Republicans and 598.8k Democrats have voted in advance of the March 15 election.  That’s nearly 17% of registered Republicans (active and inactive) and 11.9% of registered Democrats (active and inactive) as of February 1, 2016. Roughly seven out of 10 Republicans and Democrats who have voted have cast absentee ballots, with 30% voting in-person.  In addition, some 1.7k absentee voters and another 2.9k early in-person have voted, but registered between February 1 and February 16, 2016, the last day to register to vote in the PPP election.

Thus far, Republican absentee and in-person voters look remarkably similar along racial/ethnic lines. Of the 543.3k Republicans who have voted absentee ballots, 86% are white and slightly less than 11% are Hispanic.  Of the 229.5k Republicans who have voted early in-person ballots, 87% are white and slightly less than 10% are Hispanic.

Of the 423.6k Democrats who have voted absentee ballots, 70% are white, roughly 17% are black, and less than 10% are Hispanic.  Of the 175.3k Democrats who have voted early in-person ballots, 59% are white, 26% are black, and slightly more than 10% are Hispanic.

In terms of turnout, nearly 17% of registered Republicans have voted to date: 17.5% of white Republicans and nearly 16% of Hispanic Republicans have voted thus far.

Slightly less than 12% of registered Democrats have voted.  Among Democrats, 15.6% of white Democrats, 8.2% of black Democrats, and nearly 8% of Hispanic Democrats have voted to date.

The overall turnout rate in the state is 10.7%.  The reason it is so much lower than the Republican and Democratic turnout, of course, is because NPAs are shut out from voting in either the Democratic or Republican PPPs. And it shows: less than 1% of of the state’s 3.25m registered NPAs have voted in this election.

Finally, it needs to be noted (once again), that #Millennials are not turning out thus far.  Only 2.6% of voters under the age of 30 have voted; in contrast 20.5% of the state’s voters over the age of 60 have voted.

By party, 4.6% of the 578.0k Republicans under 30 years have voted; 3.7% of the 847.5k Democrats under 30 years old have voted.

In contrast, 28% of the 1.86m registered Republicans over 60 have voted and 21.7% of the 1.80m registered Democrats over 60 have voted.

As I’ve written before, at this point, it’s hard to see how #Millennials are going to decide either the Republican or Democratic presidential primaries in Florida. Too many millennials — some 819k — are registered as NPAs and as thus have no voice.