Exclusive: Evidence that Democrats are Beginning to Ramp up GOTV in SE Florida (Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach), where Clinton Needs to Turn out Democrats & NPAs

As of yesterday evening, 1.15m votes have been cast in the three big SE Florida counties (so, excluding Monroe County).

There are 1.7m registered Democrats in these three Democratic-rich counties; that’s roughly 46% of the 3.7m registered voters as of October 1, 2016.

So far, Democrats have accounted for 50% of the total ballots cast (EIP and VBM). That’s a very good sign for the Clinton camp. NPAs, whose share of registered voters in the three populous counties is 27% of all registrants (slightly higher than the percentage of Republicans, at 25%), account for nearly 21% of total votes cast as of last night.  This is potentially good sign for Clinton. Why?  Because turnout of NPAs in SE Florida often is not very robust, but Clinton needs NPAs in the three counties because (as the chart below shows), the NPAs who have voted already are disproportionately more likely to be Hispanics.

Of the 234.5k NPAs who’ve already mailed in their ballots or voted in person, 42% are Hispanic, and polling suggests that Clinton is doing fine with Hispanics in SE Florida, even in Miami-Dade County.

Another good sign for Clinton is that black voters in the three counties have started to return their VBM and turn out during EIP.  Blacks make up slightly less than 19% of the registered voters in DAD, BRO, and PAL.  So far, they constitute slightly less than 18% of the total early (EIP and VBM) votes cat in SE Florida. Including today, there’s still 5 days left of early voting (including this coming Saturday and Sunday) to GOTV, so the dire warnings of low black turnout may be premature.

As I’ve said countless times, be careful reading early the early voting tea leaves…lots of voting left to be had in the Sunshine State.


Exclusive: Counting Miami-Dade GOP absentee ballots in light of @realdonaldtrump claims

As of this morning, 59.3k Miami-Dade Republicans have had their absentee ballots counted by the SOE. That’s out of 87.9k GOP absentee ballots sent out to registered voters beginning in earnest in late January.  So, 67.5% of all absentee ballots are already in the hopper, ready to be counted on Election Day.

More than 450 absentee envelope mailed in by Miami-Dade Republicans don’t have the voter’s signature; another 500+ have some form of voter error, and the canvasing board will take a look at them to determine if they’re valid or should be rejected.

The most important number, and the one that Donald Trump is likely referencing, is the 25.6k absentee ballots of registered Republicans that have yet to be sent in as of this morning’s figures. Certainly, there’s a history of absentee ballot fraud in Miami-Dade, as @MarcACaputo @PatriciaMazzei know well.

Looking forward to giving a talk at Miami-Dade College Friday morning on impact of Florida’s HB1355 on Hispanic registration & early voting

Press Release available here:

Miami Dade College to Host Symposium on Hispanic Influence in the 2012 Presidential Election

Miami, May 2, 2012 – Miami Dade College’s (MDC) Center for Latin American and Caribbean Initiatives (CLACI) and the University of Florida (UF) Association of Hispanic Alumni (AHA) will present a symposium on the significant role and influence of Hispanics in the 2012 Presidential Election. The symposium will take place on Friday, May 11, from 8:30 to noon at MDC’s Wolfson Campus in downtown Miami. The event is free and open to the public, but registration is required.

The role of the Hispanic electorate is rising in the U.S. Latinos are the fastest growing minority in the nation and their vote may go from being influential to being decisive in the next presidential election. The panel will disaggregate the Hispanic vote and look at the different Hispanic communities across the nation, their electoral preferences and their potential role in defining key races in important states. Panelists will also discuss Latino electoral preferences in connection to key policy topics, such as immigration reform, the economy, educational policy, and U.S. foreign policy in Latin America.

Guest panelists will include MDC Social Science Chair Dr. Victor Vazquez-Hernandez, UF Political Science Professor Dr. Daniel A. Smith and UF Political Science Professor Dr. Richard Scher. The moderators will be CLACI’s Executive Director Carlos Barrezueta and Dr. Michael Martinez, professor and chair of UF’s Political Science department.

The symposium is part of the events leading to the AHA’s signature event, the Ninth Annual Gator Guayabera Guateque (GGG), which raises funds for scholarships for minority students (many who are Hispanic) to attend UF. Both UF and MDC students have received scholarships from the AHA and as a result of this event. The GGG gala will be held in the Doral Golf Resort & Spa on May 19.

Symposium on Hispanic Influence in the 2012 Presidential Election

WHEN: Friday, May 11, 8:30 AM – 12:00 PM
WHERE: MDC Wolfson Campus, 300 NE Second Ave. Building 2, Room 2106

To register for the symposium, please send an e-mail toufahaevents@gmail.com.

For more information, please contact Maggie Sequeira at 305-237-3501, msequeira@uff.ufl.edu.