Late Night Numbers from Florida: Older Whites Dominating Early Vote-by-Mail, but Democrats Holding their Own

Of the more-than 310k vote-by-mail ballots received (not yet tallied) by Florida’s 67 SOEs, ElectionSmith, Inc. has tallied voter file information about 99.7% of those who have already voted in the presidential election. By far–over 82% — of the VBM received have been cast by white voters. Another 7% have been cast by blacks, 6% by Hispanics, and the balance other racial/ethnic groups.

Women have cast roughly 165k of the 310k VBM, accounting for roughly 53.2% of the VBM cast. That’s only slightly more than the 52.8% of women who make up active voters in the state.

Those under the age of 30–many of whom have never licked a postage stamp– have cast only 3.7% of all VBM thus far, well below the 17% of the 12.46m active voters in Florida. On the other hand, registered voters 61 and over have cast 66.6% of the VBM, nearly double the 34.3% of active voters of that age who are registered to vote.

Not surprisingly, Baby-boomers and the Greatest Generation sure do like their vote-by-mail in Florida!

Of the roughly 206k voters 61 and over who have cast VBM thus far, 87% are white. What is surprising, however, is of these 179k older white voters who’ve cast VBM thus far,  less than half (47%) are Republicans, which is less than the share of older white Republicans in the September 2016, from which these data are drawn.

Again, it’s way too early to divine too much from these VBM, not only for overall turnout or support for Trump or Clinton, but also for overall VBM figures.

To be sure, these earliest of early VBM voters are likely strongest of strong partisans, unlikely to be moved by any 11th hour revelations in the presidential campaign.

I expect there to be upwards of 3m VBM cast in Florida, so there’s still a long way to go!

Hey, @NYTimes, Millennials in Florida are still registering as Democrats

I feel compelled to push back on this New York Times story that ran yesterday.

I’ll leave it to others to analyze party registrations in other states, but in Florida, newly registered millennials are actually as partisan as ever. They are not, as Jeremy Peters and Yamiche Alcindor write, citing a PEW study, “declaring themselves unaffiliated with either party at a rate faster than any other generation.”

Here are the facts:

Of the 650.9k Floridians who registered to vote between January 1, 2016 and September 1, 2016, 221.7k (34%) are between the ages of 18-30.

Of those 221.7k, 24% registered at Republicans, 37% registered as Democrats, and 35% registered as NPAs (No Party Affiliates).

Only 137 of these millennials registered with the Green Party and another 768 registered with the Libertarian Party. That’s less than 1/2 of 1% of the total new millennials.

Compared to the other, older 429.2k who newly registered over the same time period, newly registered millennials were actually MORE likely to register as Democrats. Only 33% of all 30+ newly registered voters registered as Democrats.

So, in short, Clinton may indeed have an enthusiasm gap in Florida, but it’s not the case that millennials in the Sunshine State are “not moving toward the party” as Peters and Alcindor write.

Why #Millennials Won’t Decide Florida’s GOP or Democratic Presidential Primaries

According to the latest numbers (January 31, 2016), 17.5% of Florida’s electorate is under the age of 30. Yet younger voters will have little say in who either the Republican or Democratic presidential nominees will be in the state’s March 15, 2016 primary election.

As of today, voters under 30 have cast less than 3% of absentee ballots and less than 4% of the early in-person votes.

Of course, the lack of participation by millennials in the Republican and Democratic primaries is in large part a function of younger voters disproportionately registering as No Party Affiliates (NPAs) in the Sunshine State.  Over 1/3 of voters under the age of 30 in Florida have no say in either presidential primary.  That’s because among the under-30 crowd, 35.5% are registered as NPAs.

Compare this figure to those who are between 30 and 60 years old, where 26.3% are registered as NPAs.  And what about Floridians over the age of 60? Only 16.9% of the 60+ crowd are registered as NPAs.

So, if you don’t identify with a party in Florida, you don’t get a say in who’s going to be the parties’ nominees. Not only are older Floridians are more partisan, they’re allowed to participate in party primaries, whereas over a third of younger registered voters may not.

So much for the influence of #MillennialVoters