Archives for posts with tag: Registration

My latest research, coauthored with UF PhD candidate, Enrijeta Shino.

Timing the Habit

Online version available here.

 

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So, as of this morning, some 6.4m votes have been cast in Florida.

We know that the Hispanic share of the early vote (EIP & VBM) has increased relative to 2012 share of the electorate.

The real Q, is the cannibalization rate of 2016 voters, and whether the voters who have banked their votes prior to tomorrow’s Election Day, are truly new voters, or just ones who had turned out in 2012.

The following chart has the racial/ethnic composition of early voters in 2016 who DID NOT CAST A BALLOT in 2012, broken down by when they registered to vote.

Of the 6.4m votes cast heading into Election Day, 1.69m were cast by registered voters who skipped 2012 GE. Some 607.8k of them were registered prior to 2013, but chose to sit it out. Roughly 61% of the pre-2013 registrants are white, only 22% are Hispanic, and 10% black.

The percentages of the racial/ethnic composition of 2016 voters who registered AFTER the 2012 GE, the composition of those who registered this year looks considerably different than pre-2013 as well as those who registered in 2014 & 2015.

In the table below, the column on the right reveals that only 52% of the 2016 registrants who have voted in a presidential election for the first-time are white, whereas 23.5% are Hispanic.

2016-2012-racial-ethnic-composition-of-the-early-vote

The Race to 270 may well come down to Florida and the votes of the voters who didn’t go to the polls four years ago, or who became newly registered. With turnout of new voters so robust, it’s hard to say there’s an enthusiasm gap in Florida.

 

With an extra hour from daylight savings, I was able to crunch some new numbers…

According to the Florida Department of State, Division of Elections transparent by rather cryptic website, over 107k voters registered between October 11 and October 28.  According to the DSDE’s website, “Pursuant to a court order, Florida’s voter registration deadline for the 2016 General Election was extended from October 11 to 5:00 PM on October 18. The Department of State’s Division of Elections is committed to ensuring that all eligible Floridians who submitted a complete voter registration application by the extended voter registration deadline can vote.”

As the expert who crunched the numbers for the plaintiffs in that federal lawsuit (Florida Democratic Party v. Richard Scott) I’m obviously interested in the numbers of new registrants.

For some reason, DSDE’s website of daily activity reports provides only the “total number of voter registration applications verified and made active, and voter registration applications in the verification process, on or after October 11.”

Here’s the final running count provided by DSDE.

Date Applications Verified & Active (Registered Voters)
10/11/16 – 10/28/16 (4:12 PM) 107,085

I’m not sure why October 11 registrations are provided as the start date of the running total, as that was the regular final day (bookclosing) to register to vote in Florida prior to the court’s extended week of VR.  The DSDE’s processed voter registration dates also run through October 28; these voters who were processed after the October 18 extension should be eligible to cast regular ballots in the November 2016 General Election, as the DSDE states that, “The Department will be providing updated daily numbers until the state provides statistical bookclosing (voter registration) reports for the upcoming General Election.” [emphasis added]

Below are the party and demographic breakdowns of the 90,695 Floridians who were successfully processed by the state’s 67 county SOEs and the DSDE and recorded in the statewide voter file as being registered to vote on October 12 (the first extended day per the court’s order) through October 18, 2016.

PARTY

Democrats: 28,357 (31%)

Republicans: 23,410 (26%)

NPAs: 36,414 (40%)

3rd Parties: 2,514 (3%)

 

RACE/ETHNICITY

Black: 10,782 (12%)

Hispanic: 19,239 (21%)

White: 45,050 (50%)

All Others: 15,624 (17%)

 

AGE

18-29: 32,448 (36%)

30-44: 22,939 (25%)

45-59: 18,042 (20%)

60-105: 13,810 (4%)

Other (Pre-Registrant; Over-105; Redacted): 3,456

 

These October 2016 figures comport to my expert report in the FDP v. Scott lawsuit, where I find that in 2012, the more than 116,000 individuals who successfully registered to vote in the final six days before the October 9, 2012 bookclosing were disproportionately more likely to be racial/ethnic minorities and younger (I was not asked to look at the party of the registrants by the plaintiffs).

Gaining a hour of sleep (work) feels pretty good, but not nearly as good as I feel having done my part to extend the voter registration deadline in Florida.  Pretty amazing what a little tweet can do…

scott_vr_matthew

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