2.09m votes already cast in Florida as polls opened this morning. Party, Race/Ethnicity, Age Breakdowns here:

When precincts opened their doors this morning at 7am, more than 2.09m Floridians had already cast their ballots.

Nearly 1.17m out of the 4.56m active and inactive registered Republicans in the state had cast early in-person or absentee ballots ahead of Election Day, or 25.6% of all registered Republicans.

Nearly 865k out of the 5.04m active and inactive registered Democrats in the state had cast early in-person or absentee ballots ahead of Election Day, or 17.2% of all registered Democrats.

An additional 52.8k NPAs and 3rd party registrants cast ballots (but not for the GOP or Democratic nominees), as did another 3.6k (out of the 28.9k) who registered to vote between February 1 and February 16, the last day to register to vote in the presidential preference primary election.

Older voters in both parties came out in force.  739.3k (63%) of all Republican ballots cast prior to Election Day were cast by voters 60 and older. 514.5k (59%) of all Democratic ballots cast prior to Election Day were cast by voters 60 and older.Only 50.3k Republican and 59.8k Democrats under the age of 30 voted during the early voting period or by absentee ballot.

Sliced differently, only 8.7% of all registered Republicans under 30 and only 7% of all registered Democrats under 30 have voted prior to Election Day, whereas nearly 40% of all registered Republicans over 60 and 29% of all registered Democrats over 60 cast ballots ahead of today, March 15, 2016.

What about the partisan breakdown along racial/ethnic lines?

Slightly more than 1m white Republicans have cast ballots, nearly ten times the 119.5k Hispanic Republicans who voted early in-person and absentee.

Among Democratic early and absentee voters, 547k are white,86.9k are Hispanic, and 191.5k are black.





Exclusive: 1.98 million votes cast in Florida; Over 25k Last Minuite Party-Switchers

As of this morning, 1.98m early in-person and absentee ballots have been cast in Florida.  Early voting is now complete in Florida, and these totals include all early in-person ballots cast in Florida (except for those cast in the 9 counties that extended the option to voters today) as well as absentee ballots received as of this morning.

Over 1.125m Republicans have cast absentee and early in-person ballots.  Of the 4.59m registered Republicans (active and inactive), 24.5% have voted.

Over 824.4m Democrats have cast  absentee and early in-person ballots.  Of the 5.05m registered Democrats (active and inactive), 16.3% have voted.

The balance of votes have been cast by NPAs and those registered with 3rd parties.

These early vote totals include last-minute party-switchers and new registrants.

The Democrats picked up more than 4k Floridians who registered in the final two weeks prior to the February 16 book closing and who have already voted in the Democratic PPP primary. But the total also includes nearly 10k registered voters who switched to the Democratic Party in the final two weeks before the cutoff date, including nearly 6.9k NPAs and 1.9k previously registered Republicans.

Republicans picked up more than 4.8k new registrants during the final two weeks who have already voted, but also added 15k previously registered Floridians who switched their party registrations, including 7.7k NPAs.

Is this party-switching registration during the final two weeks prior to the book closing on February 16 evidence of strategic voting?  Likely so. (I’ll be digging into this in greater detail for a forthcoming academic paper).


Florida’s Election Day is a Week Away, but as of this morning, 1.265 million Floridians have already voted. Details:

As I’ve noted, as of this morning:

15.1% of the state’s registered 4.56m Republicans have voted absentee and early in-person ballots.  Around 14.5% of the 511k Hispanics registered as Republicans have cast ballots and 15.5% of the 3.81m white Republicans have voted.

On the Democratic side, 10.8% of the state’s 5.033m registered Democrats have cast early in-person and absentee ballots. Roughly 7.3% of the state’s 1.44m black Democrats, 7.2% of the 757.3k Hispanic Democrats, and 14.2% of the state’s 2.56m white Democrats have voted.

What about Millennials?

Of the roughly 2.31m registered voters under 30 in Florida, 2.3% have voted thus far. Contrast that with the 18.5% turnout of registered voters 60 and over.

Of the 578.0k registered Republicans under 30, 3.9% have voted.

Of the 847.5k registered Democrats under 30, 3.3% have voted.

The reason why voting among the under-30 crowd in Florida is so low is because some 819k voters under the age of 30 are registered as No Party Affiliate, and thus are excluded from the parties’ primaries.

Which FL counties have the highest turnout thus far in the 2016 PPP?

Here’s % voter turnout, by party registration, as of end of March 5, 2016 (early in-person & absentee), for the top 10 and bottom 10 performing counties:

County % Rep Turnout County % Dem Turnout
LEE 23.3 PIN 19.54
PIN 21.0 LEE 15.98
BAK 17.7 MON 15.24
SUM 17.4 SUM 14.41
CIT 16.3 SAR 13.75
CLL 16.0 HER 13.59
MON 15.8 MRT 13.09
DAD 15.4 CHA 12.82
MRT 15.4 CIT 12.52
TAY 14.8 MAN 11.46
***** ***** ***** *****
HOL 6.8 WAK 4.85
CLM 6.7 PAL 4.46
GUL 6.6 LAF 4.18
BAY 6.5 HOL 3.94
LAF 6.5 LIB 3.91
MAD 6.3 GUL 3.9
PAL 5.1 UNI 3.09
UNI 4.8 MAD 2.94
GLA 2.7 HAR 1.17
HAR 2.0 GLA 0.91

Florida Absentee Ballot Update: 592.8k cast in #2016 PPP

Absentee ballots received by SOEs on Saturday are now in the hopper. Nearly 600k Floridians have already voted, including 310.5k Republicans and 267.8k Democrats.  Of the 592.8k, the state’s SOEs have recorded 4,516 as having a “voter error”; this is down from Friday’s total of 4,700, which apparently means some SOEs took a closer look at some of the absentee ballots being processed, changing many that previously had a “voter error” over the weekend. Of course, all absentee ballots deemed by SOEs staff await the final judgment of the county’s three-member Canvassing Board, which can accept them for counting or reject them as “illegal.” As for those absentee ballots without signatures, according to the latest figures some 3,332 absentee ballot voters failed to sign the back of the envelope. Some 395 ballots in last Friday’s totals were classified as having “voter error” have been reclassified as “voted”; another 58 that lacked a signature apparently were “cured” by a voter coming in and signing the back of the flagged envelope.

Younger voters continue to eschew voting absentee ballots relative to the rest of registered voters. This is likely a good thing, given their greater likelihood of screwing up by not having their signature match what’s on the voter file (see my  prior post).  Less than 3% of all absentee ballot processed thus far are by voters under the age of 30; 71.5% have been cast by those over 60 years of age.  Over 3% of absentee ballots cast by voters under 30 have a “voter error,” compared to less than .6% of those 60 and older.  The rate of older and younger voters who have forgotten to sign their envelopes is comparable, though.Today also marks the first day of early in-person voting in 17 counties, as I tweeted earlier today.

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