Exclusive first cut at 2016 Turnout rates in Florida…by Party and Race/Ethnicity

According to the Florida Division of Elections, some 9.58m Floridians turned out to vote in the 2016 General Election, or 74.5% of the “Active” registered voters at the time of the state’s October bookclosing.

After some routine parsing and cleaning (more on that later), I’ve crunched the numbers from the January 10, 2017 statewide voter file and vote history files.

According to these records, some 9.592m registered voters (active & inactive) cast ballots in the 2016 General Election, or 69.98% of the state’s 13.7m registered voters. When limiting votes cast to just those who are considered “Active” by the counties, the total votes cast drops to 9.590m, indicating that nearly 2,600 “inactive” voters cast ballots. (The plurality of these “inactive” voters, incidentally, were Democrats.)

As for turnout among party registrants (limiting the following analysis to “active” voters), 74.4% of the state’s 4.908m Democrats turned out to vote. In contrast, 81.2% of the state’s 4.577m registered Republicans cast ballots. Only 63.3% of the state’s 3.132m No Party Affiliates (NPAs) voted, whereas 70.2% of the 347k Third Party registrants turned out.

With respect to turnout by race/ethnicity, 77.1% of the state’s 8.302m white voters voted. That’s considerably higher than the 68.9% turnout rate of the state’s 2.055m registered Hispanics and the 69.0% turnout rate of the state’s 1.743m registered blacks.

What about race/ethnicity by party?

Among Democrats, 77.5% of the 2.39m white Democrats voted; 70.9% of the 812k Hispanic Democrats voted; and 72.1% of the 1.41m black Democrats voted.

Among Republicans, 82.6% of the 3.814m white Republicans voted; 75.4% of the 519k Hispanic Republicans voted; and 61.2% of the 61.3k black Republicans voted.

Among NPAs, 66.0% of the 1.819m white NPAs voted; 61.9% of the 693k Hispanic NPAs voted; and 54.1% of the 255k black NPAs voted.

In previous posts, I’ve documented extensively the early in-person and vote-by-mail turnout rates by party and race, but until now, we haven’t been able to delve into Election Day turnout.  I’m working on a couple of academic papers on this topic, so I’m not going to go into details here.

But here’s the kicker:

Of the roughly 2.959m voters who cast ballots on Election Day, 39.5% of ballots cast were by Republicans.  Only 34.2% of ballots cast on Election Day were by Democrats. Another 23.4% of Election Day ballots were cast by NPAs, and 2.9% were cast by Third Party registrants.

Say what you will about the many developments in the waning days of the campaign that likely hurt Clinton, her ground game in Florida apparently failed to deliver, as nearly 1.3m active Democrats stayed home.

On Cannibalizing the Vote in Florida…Here’s some data, @NateSilver538 @Nate_Cohn to work into your models

Working on fumes, so this will be quick.

One day (“Souls to the Poll”) of Early-in-Person voting still to tabulate, and thousands more Vote-by-Mail ballots still to make it to election offices by 7pm on Tuesday, but we’re headed for record turnout in Florida.

Over 6.1m votes already cast, rapidly approaching the 8.5m tallied in 2012.

So, with Election Day voting still to come, the Big Q is , which party has cannibalized voters who waited 4 years ago, until Tuesday, November 6, 2012 to vote, by getting them to vote early in 2016?

Let’s start with the parties first:

So far, of the 2.43m Democrats who’ve voted early, 76% voted in 2012.  This includes slightly more than 1/2 million Dems who in 2012 waited until Election Day to cast their ballots.

Of the 2.40m Republicans who’ve cast their lot through this am, 79% voted in 2012, including 558k who voted on Tuesday, Nov. 6, 2012.

Of the 1.16m No Party Affiliates who’ve already voted in the Sunshine State, only 60% voted in 2016, but the plurality of the 2012 voters cast their ballots on Election Day.

So, Republicans are cannibalizing their 2012 likely voters at a slightly higher rate than Democrats, and both parties are drawing in their likely voters at a much higher clip than NPAs.

Flipped upside down, this means that NPAs who stayed home in 2012 are coming out a a much higher rate than the partisans.

None of this surprises me.

What is notable is that nearly 1/4 Republicans who have already cast their mail or in-person ballots in 2016 waited to vote on Election Day in 2012, whereas it’s only slightly more than 1/5 Dems and NPAs who voted on Election Day in 2012 who have already voted. That means there are more votes (raw and percentage) to be had by Clinton than Trump as the final GOTV push occurs on Tuesday.

I don’t feel like writing up the Race/Ethnicity & Age & Gender cannibalization rates right now, but suffice to say, they ain’t pretty for The Donald.

As a tease, I’ll leave you with this tidbit: So far, 36% of the 907k Hispanics who have voted in 2016 didn’t vote by any method in 2012. That’s a full 12 points higher than whites, and will likely be the key to who wins the presidency.

Florida Turnout Hit 45% Yesterday, but some 7m “Active” Registered Voters still have yet to Cast a Ballot…

As of this morning,some 5.7m Floridians have voted.  Of the state’s 12.7m active voters, that’s a turnout rate 44.5% ahead of Tuesday’s election (and with ballots still to be tabulated from today and in many large counties tomorrow that have EIP voting; and thousands of domestic mail ballots are still to arrive by Election Day.)

So, who are the 7m or so active Floridians who have not yet voted, or have not yet returned their mail ballots? Why have they chosen to subject themselves to the continual bombardment of phone calls, direct mail, and door knocks by anxious campaigners?

Of the 2.6m active registered Democrats still waiting to be inspired, 1.2m are  white, 775k are black, and 446k are Hispanic.

On the Republican side of those still on the sidelines, 1.9m of the 2.3m who haven’t voted are white, and 264k are Hispanics.

Perhaps most crucial to the presidential and US Senate elections are the nearly 2m NPAs who have yet to vote. Of these anti-party, party-pessimists, or party-poopers, 1.1m are white, 440k are Hispanic, and 178k are black.

The presidential election could well be decided by which campaign is able to convince, cajole, or carry these potential voters to the polls.

Time to get to work, campaign operatives!

Exclusive: Evidence that Democrats are Beginning to Ramp up GOTV in SE Florida (Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach), where Clinton Needs to Turn out Democrats & NPAs

As of yesterday evening, 1.15m votes have been cast in the three big SE Florida counties (so, excluding Monroe County).

There are 1.7m registered Democrats in these three Democratic-rich counties; that’s roughly 46% of the 3.7m registered voters as of October 1, 2016.

So far, Democrats have accounted for 50% of the total ballots cast (EIP and VBM). That’s a very good sign for the Clinton camp. NPAs, whose share of registered voters in the three populous counties is 27% of all registrants (slightly higher than the percentage of Republicans, at 25%), account for nearly 21% of total votes cast as of last night.  This is potentially good sign for Clinton. Why?  Because turnout of NPAs in SE Florida often is not very robust, but Clinton needs NPAs in the three counties because (as the chart below shows), the NPAs who have voted already are disproportionately more likely to be Hispanics.

Of the 234.5k NPAs who’ve already mailed in their ballots or voted in person, 42% are Hispanic, and polling suggests that Clinton is doing fine with Hispanics in SE Florida, even in Miami-Dade County.

Another good sign for Clinton is that black voters in the three counties have started to return their VBM and turn out during EIP.  Blacks make up slightly less than 19% of the registered voters in DAD, BRO, and PAL.  So far, they constitute slightly less than 18% of the total early (EIP and VBM) votes cat in SE Florida. Including today, there’s still 5 days left of early voting (including this coming Saturday and Sunday) to GOTV, so the dire warnings of low black turnout may be premature.

As I’ve said countless times, be careful reading early the early voting tea leaves…lots of voting left to be had in the Sunshine State.

fl-eip-vbm-combined-through-nov-1-2016-party-race-dad-bro-pal

An ElectionSmith Exclusive: Florida’s Latest Party & Race/Ethnicity & Age Turnout Figures (as of this morning)

As of this morning, some 3.23m of the state’s 12.7m active registered voters have cast Vote-by-Mail or Early In-Person ballots in Florida. So, 25.5% of active voters on the rolls have already turned out to vote in the Sunshine State.

Here are the partisan and demographic breakdowns.

 

Party Turnout

29.4% of 4.5m active registered Republicans have voted.

27.0% of 4.8m active registered Democrats have voted.

17.6% of 3.0m active registered No Party Affiliates have voted.

 

Racial/Ethnic Turnout

28.1% of 8.2m active registered Whites have voted.

20.6% of 1.7m active registered Blacks have voted.

21.4% of 2.0m active registered Hispanics have voted.

 

Age Turnout

41% of the 4.5m voters 60 and older have voted.

25.6% of the 3.3m voters 45-59 have voted.

14.7% of the 2.3m voters 30-44 have voted.

9.5% of the 2.0m voters 18-29 have voted.

 

Still lots of voting to come, including EIP happening today and tomorrow.