Archives for posts with tag: vote

The following analysis comes from an extensive database my team and I have put together. It combines individual-level information of Florida voters (including where they were born) with precinct-level results.

The following graph plots precinct-level results. The size of the precincts are scaled to the total votes cast in a precinct in the 2016 General Election.  The Y-Axis is vote two-party share for Trump and Clinton. The X-Axis is the proportion of Hispanic voters in the precinct who are Cuban-born. Each precinct has at least 100 Cuban-born voters and at least 50% of voters were Hispanic.

As the LOWESS curves reveal, as the share of voters who are Cuban-born Hispanics increases, Trump’s share of the two-party vote steadily increases, intersecting with Clinton’s share of the vote around 42 percent of Cuban-born Hispanics, but then peaking at roughly 55 percent of the vote when the proportion of Cuban-born Hispanic voters reaches roughly 50 percent.

Although Trump won more than 60 percent of the two-party vote in a handful of these majority Hispanic precincts with a prevalence of Cuban-born voters, in Miami-Dade Precinct 335 (Hialeah), where 60 percent of the Hispanics who cast ballots were Cuban-born, Trump won less than 45 percent of the two-party vote.

Cuban Vote for Trump Precinct PNG

 

Race, Shelby County, and the Voter Information Verification Act in North Carolina

Florida State University Law Review

Michael C. Herron & Daniel A. Smith

Abstract

Shortly after the Supreme Court in Shelby County v. Holder struck down section 4(b) of the Voting Rights Act (VRA), the State of North Carolina enacted an omnibus piece of elec-tion-reform legislation known as the Voter Information Verification Act (VIVA). Prior to Shelby, portions of North Carolina were covered jurisdictions per the VRA’s sections 4 and 5—meaning that they had to seek federal preclearance for changes to their election proce-dures—and this motivates our assessment of whether VIVA’s many alterations to North Carolina’s election procedures are race-neutral. We show that in presidential elections in North Carolina black early voters have cast their ballots disproportionately in the first week of early voting, which was eliminated by VIVA; that blacks disproportionately have registered to vote during early voting and in the immediate run-up to Election Day, something VIVA now prohibits; that registered voters in the state who lack two VIVA-acceptable forms of voter identification, driver’s licenses and non-operator identification cards, are disproportionately black; that VIVA’s identification dispensation for voters at least seventy years old disproportionately benefits white registered voters; and, that preregistered sixteen and seventeen year old voters in North Carolina, a category of registrants that VIVA prohibits, are disproportionately black. These results illustrate how VIVA will have a disparate effect on black voters in North Carolina.

Download here:

 

412k registered since the 2012 General Election.

These 412k early voters are casting their first ballots in a presidential election in Florida. Many, no doubt, are snowbirds, who voted up north in 2012 before retiring to our lovely beaches. Others, to be sure, are recently naturalized citizens, or have recently turned 18. Still others finally got around to registering to vote in Florida.

Crunching the numbers, I’m able to determine who these newbies are — their party affiliation, their race/ethnicity, and their gender.

Don’t have time to dive into the numbers, but here are some graphs of the 412k early voters in 2016 (as of yesterday, November 2) who’ve registered in Florida since the 2012 GE.

There are 2 percentage point more Democrats than Republicans, but NPAs are more than holding up their share of the overall electorate. Recently registered whites are dominating, but Hispanics are out-performing their share of the electorate. And women are out-performing men, but not nearly at the overall rate in terms of the gender gap of the nearly 5 million Floridians who’ve already cast ballots ahead of the November 8, 2016 General Election.

 

post-2012-early-2016-voters-party-nov-2post-2012-early-2016-voters-raceethnicity-nov-2post-2012-early-2016-voters-gender-nov-2

 

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