Of the roughly 13.8m voters who are registered in Florida, 42% of them — some 5.8 million registered voters — either skipped the 2012 General Election (even though they were registered to vote), or registered to vote over the past four years.
How many of these infrequent Florida voters have turned out in 2016, either casting a vote-by-mail ballot or voting early in-person?
Crunching the numbers, as of this morning more than 1.1 million votes have been cast by voters who either opted to sit on the sidelines, or who were not yet registered to vote in the Sunshine State in 2012 when Barack Obama narrowly beat Mitt Romney.
That’s right, through Wednesday, November 2, with just six days to go before Election Day, over 1.1m have been cast by “new” voters — that is, voters who didn’t participate in the 2012 General Election.
Who are these suddenly energized folks? “Trumpkins”? “Lazy Ds”? Notoriously low-turnout No Party Affiliates?
Let’s go to the numbers…
Of the 1.1m who’ve cast ballots in 2016 but who sat out or weren’t eligible to vote in 2012, 37% are Democrats, 33% are Republicans, and 27% are NPAs.
By race/ethnicity, most of the 2012 GE-skippers are white (63%), but Hispanics make up 19%, with the share of black registrants over 9%. Over 51% of these 2016 early voters who didn’t vote in 2012 are women, and 44% men, with the balance comprised of those with an unrecorded gender.
Of the 1.1m who’ve already voted in 2016, roughly 412k were registered in time to vote in the 2012 GE but opted to stay home.
Who are they?
Of these 412k newly energized voters who skipped 2012, 38% some might call “Lazy Ds”, 33% might very well be awakened “Trumpkins”, and 26% may be NPAs who in 2012 couldn’t be bothered by making a choice between Obama and Romney. Of course, there are numerous other reasons for why these registered voters stayed home in 2012 but have chosen to vote in 2016 — perhaps some of them are #NeverTrump Republicans who can stand their party’s flag bearer, or perhaps some are Democrats who couldn’t stomach voting for Obama for a second term in 2012 and didn’t bother voting.
In my next post, I’ll look at the 723k voters who have cast ballots in 2016 who registered to vote in Florida after the 2012 General Election.