Exclusive Racial/Ethnic Breakdown of 2016 Early Votes Cast (EIP & VBM) in Florida, with 2012 Comparisons

Here are the latest figures I’ve calculated by linking the statewide September 30, 2016 voter file with daily Early In-Person and Vote-by-Mail returns, and comparing these figures with data from 2012 at the same point in time (that is, through Sunday, October 30, 2016, and Sunday, October 28, 2012).

Note, that in 2012, there were only two days of early in-person voting at this juncture (Saturday, October 27 and Sunday, October 28), whereas in 2016, some 50 counties have had at least 7 days of EIP, and all 67 counties have had at least two day (Saturday, October 29 and yesterday, Sunday October 30).

I’ve tweeted and blogged earlier today about the trends, and spoken to about a dozen reporters today, so dig around if you want my interpretation.

2016-2012-racial-ethnic-early-vote-eip-vbm-thru-oct-30-2016

Another ElectionSmith Exclusive

Of the 1.1m Floridians who have cast vote-by-mail ballots that have been received by the state’s 67 SOEs through yesterday (Friday, 22 October 2016), nearly half (46%) did not vote an absentee ballot in the 2012 General Election.

In fact, of the 1.1m VBM cast thus far, 215.6k didn’t vote in the 2012 GE at all. So, one out of five VBMs received by SOEs are from voters who didn’t participate in the 2012 GE.

Of the new VBM voters, some 35k registered to vote in 2016, including 5,312 who’ve registered since September 1, 2016.

More Democrats than Republicans who’ve already cast a VBM either skipped or registered subsequent to the November 6, 2012 GE.  82.7k Democrats (18.7%) and 76.5k Republicans (16.5%) have not voted for president since at least 2008, if ever.

As I’ve noted elsewhere, though, the big surge in VBM in 2016 in Florida is with No Party Affiliates.  Nearly 51k of the 172.7k NPAs who have cast VBMs so far are voting for the first time (or at least since 2008).

So, who are these newbie NPAs who didn’t vote in 2012?

Nearly 18% are Hispanic, but that’s below the 22% of all NPAs in the voter file who are Hispanic (as of September 1, 2016).   Over 68% of the NPAs who’ve voted a VBM ballot but  who didn’t vote in 2012 are white, well above the 59% of all NPAs in the voter file who are white.

However, a greater percentage of VBM voters who didn’t vote in 2012  (compared to those who voted in 2012) are Hispanic and a smaller percentage are white.

So, lots of new voters are casting mail ballots for the first time. The demographics look pretty comparable to VBM voters who cast ballots by this mode in 2012.

Of course, lots of VBM (and early-in-person and Election Day) ballots to come…

 

 

 

 

Comparison of Florida’s 2016 to 2012 Daily Vote-by-Mail Ballots Received, 18 Days Prior to Election Day

Democrats holding their own with Republicans in vote-by-mail ballots received by SOEs as of close-of-business yesterday. Both well ahead of comparable 2012 days-before-election figures.

The big news, though, is the nearly 172k VBM cast by No Party Affiliates. That’s more than 2x as many cast by NPAs at this stage in 2012.

fl-vbm-through-oct-21-2016-2012-comparison-party

In Florida, NPAs Outpacing 2012 Vote-by-Mail Daily Ballots Received by SOEs, while Democrats Close the Gap

fl-vbm-through-oct-19-2016-2012-comparison-party

Through yesterday, October 19, Republicans had returned 12,832 more vote-by-mail ballots than Democrats.

However, as of this time four years ago–that is, 20 days prior to the November 6, 2012 General Election–Republicans led Democrats by more than 28,400 absentee ballot returns. Democrats have closed the absentee ballot gap in Florida.

In 2012, at this moment, Republicans accounted for nearly 45% of all absentee ballots cast; as of yesterday, in the 2016 election, that percentage was less than 42%.

But the reason that Democrats are closing the gap is due in large part to the share of vote-by-mail ballots being cast by No Party Affiliates in 2016: as of yesterday, 68,000 more NPAs have had their vote-by-mail ballots received by local SOEs as compared to October 17, 2012.

Of course, what we might be witnessing is a shift in the mode by which voters cast their ballots, something that I’ve written extensively about with Dr. Michael Herron.