OK, there’s been a tremendous amount written on voter registration trends, by party, in Florida. It’s all wrong. Here’s why.

I’ve published quite a bit on the topic, served as an expert witness in dozens of successful lawsuits, and know these files inside and out.

Here are the facts, using proper voter files (i.e., contemporaneous), comparing Jan-July 2016 registration numbers with Jan-July 2020 voter registration numbers, comparing apples to apples.

To look at new registrations (that is, how the parties and groups are doing on the ground), you cannot merely use the Florida Division of Elections summary files to figure this out, as I explained four years ago, here.

OK, here are the numbers. Comparable voter registration, as of July 1, 2020, was down by a total of 136,392 registrants. And Democrats and Republicans both account for 32.1% of new registrants over the first six months of the year.

New Registrations by Party, January-June, 2016 vs. January-June 2020

	Dem	Rep	NPA	3rd	Total
Jan-June 2016	152,320	131,059	149,090	10,273	442,742
	34.4%	29.6%	33.7%	2.3%	100.0%
Jan-June 2020	98,439	98,472	99,879	9,560	306,350
	32.1%	32.1%	32.6%	3.1%	100.0%
Difference (2020-2016)	-53,881	-32,587	-49,211	-713	-136,392
	-2.3%	2.5%	-1.1%	0.8%

 

So, cut these numbers as you will, but by no means can it be said that Democrats are killing it out there.  In fact, a total of 33 more Republicans registered to vote anew between January 1 and June 30 (and remained registered as of June 30) than newly registered Democrats.

COVID-19 is obviously the major reason why Democratic numbers are down, as nonpartisan groups who usually hit the ground are not as active, SOEs who usually are in the schools preregistering young voters had no classrooms to go to in April or May, etc.  We’ve seen this pattern before, in 2011, after the Republican legislature passed HB 1355, which, among other things, cracked down on voter registration efforts by 3PVROs, as Michael Herron and I have written about before.

Perhaps Democrats and their allies will turn it around before the October registration date. Young voters who register immediately before an election in Florida are more likely to turn out in that proximate election, as Enrijeta Shino and I find, but their turnout levels aren’t sustained in subsequent elections, casting some doubt on the habitualization of voting.

But until we get some book closing numbers, the data are what they are. Republicans, as a proportion of new registrants in Florida, are doing better than they did four years ago over the first six months of the presidential election year.

The Last Word on Voter Registration Numbers in Florida

On December 31, 2012, a month and change after President Obama’s re-election when he carried Florida a second time, of the 12.6m registered voters in Florida (including Active, Inactive, and Pre-registered 16 & 17 year-olds ), Democrats comprised 40%, No Party Affiliates (NPAs) made up 21%, and Republicans accounted for 35% of the electorate.

Flash-forward to August 31, 2016. Democrats now make up only 38%, NPAs are up to 24%, and Republicans continue to comprise roughly 35% of the overall statewide electorate, which now weighs in at a hefty 13.7m registered voters.

And there was much rejoicing among Republicans…as the gap between registered Democrats and Republicans had narrowed, from roughly 595k to just 419k of all Active, Inactive, and Pre-registered voters on the statewide voter rolls, as of August 31, 2016.

But as I’ve tirelessly Tweeted and conversed with the media, this narrowing (by 176k voters) does not mean that Republicans have out-registered Democrats over the past 3 1/2 years.

As I’ve repeatedly shown, Democrats have actually out-registered Republicans over this period of time. 

Below I report the 2.32m newly registered voters, by party, of those who registered between January 1, 2013 and August 31, 2016 and who are still in the voter file. These are not voters who registered prior to January 1, 2013 and who subsequently changed their party registrations. No, these are NEWLY registered voters over the 3 1/2 years as of August 31, 2016.

As the table shows, of the 2.32m voters who registered during the 44 month period and who are in the statewide Florida voter file (as of August 31, 2016), 31% are registered as Democrats, 38% are NPAs, and 28% are Republicans.

In real numbers, over 80k more Democrats than Republicans are in the voter file who registered during the 3 1/2 year period. More precisely, for those of you who really like facts, as of August 31, 2016, there are 80,329 more Democrats who registered since January 1, 2013 than Republicans who registered over the same period of time and who are in the statewide voter file as of August 31, 2016.

So, with Democrats out-pacing Republicans on new registrations over the past 44 months, how is it possible that the the registration gap between the Democratic and Republican parties has closed by some 176k registered voters, with the relative percentage of Republicans growing and the percentage of Democrats decreasing?

The main reason is that the attrition rate over the past 44 months of previously registered Democrats is larger than that of Republicans who were registered prior to January 1, 2013. Some 1.24m voters have ‘exited’ the voter file over the 3 1/2 years.  Some 514.9k Democrats who were registered prior to 2012 are no longer on the rolls; 435.8k Republicans who were on the books back on December 31, 2012, are no longer registered to vote.

That’s a Democratic disadvantage of 79k voters, and it largely accounts for the Republicans closing the overall voter registration gap in the Sunshine State.

The balance –some 97k voters — accounting for Republicans closing the statewide voter registration lead held by Democrats is due to party-switching.

Of the 11.3m voters in Florida who were registered on January 1, 2013 and who remained on the voter rolls on August 31, 2016, some 216k former Democrats are no longer (as of August 31, 2016) registered with the Democratic Party. There’s also been party-switching among formerly registered Republicans, but it has not been as drastic: some 120k registered voters who were registered as Republicans on December 31, 2012 are no longer registered Republicans (as of August 31, 2016).

I’ll have fuller examination of  party-switching in a subsequent post, as I’m currently working on an academic paper on the topic that delves down into much greater detail.

So there you have it. The great mystery of the narrowing voter registration gap between Democrats and Republicans in Florida has been solved.

No conspiracy. No skewing of the data. Just the facts.

Yes, I know facts are tough to swallow for some, especially in these heated times.

But if you just chew on them long enough, you really can digest them. Really. Just try.

I still have hope that the United States can become a Mastication Nation.

Have to laugh at the Florida Division of Elections’ Disclaimer in response to my Blog Post on 3PVROs

I guess I’m glad to see they’re covering their bases….

DISCLAIMER: The Florida Third Party Voter Registration (3PVRO) database is not intended, nor should it be used, as a source for Florida voter registration statistics. The 3PVRO database reflects the cumulative number of voter registration applications submitted by a 3PVRO to the state since the time of a 3PVRO’s registration. Please note that a voter application submitted by a political party does not necessarily translate directly into a voter registered for that party as all 3PVROs must collect and submit registrations regardless of party affiliation.

FDOE’s disclosure is new. It hasn’t been there any of the previous times I’ve grabbed the publicly available data from the Division’s website. Just wondering who might have directed Secretary of State Detzner to have his staff post the disclaimer after my blog post called out the RPOF’s pathetic voter registration efforts.  Any guesses, folks?

 

EXCLUSIVE: Florida Ground Game: Between Sept 10 & Oct 10, 2016, the Republican Party of Florida submitted 117 new “non-blank” voter registration forms; the Florida Democratic Party submitted 6,920.

Overall, over the past month, Third Party Voter Registration Organizations (3PVROs) have submitted to the state’s 67 Supervisors of Elections (SOEs) some 21,952 “non-blank” voter registration forms.

The total number of registration forms was as reported today, October 10, 2016, by the Florida Division of Elections. These data come with the following disclaimer from the Florida Division of Elections:

DISCLAIMER: The Florida Third Party Voter Registration (3PVRO) database is not intended, nor should it be used, as a source for Florida voter registration statistics. The 3PVRO database reflects the cumulative number of voter registration applications submitted by a 3PVRO to the state since the time of a 3PVRO’s registration. Please note that a voter application submitted by a political party does not necessarily translate directly into a voter registered for that party as all 3PVROs must collect and submit registrations regardless of party affiliation.

Several other advocacy groups also submitted thousands of new state and federal registration forms over the past month, among them:

National Council of La Raza/Democracia USA: 3,703

New Florida Majority Education Fund: 3,420

GRSG Company: 2,228

Not all of these new voter registration forms will be processed, and they represent a fraction of all the successful new voter registrations this year. Many thousands more will be processed by tomorrow, Florida’s voter registration deadline. Of course, many qualified citizens who have signed voter registration forms may not have their applications processed due to the destruction wrought by Hurricane Matthew in several counties, which is why the Florida Democratic Party filed suit to push back the state’s October 11 voter registration deadline.

Overall, between January 1 and August 31, 2016, some 650.9k Floridians have registered to vote.

Improving the Timeliness and Accuracy of New Voter Registrations

Teaming up with my colleague, Michael McDonald <@ElectProject>, and my great team of @UF undergrad and graduate students for this Knight Foundation News Challenge!

More here:

Partnering with Local Elections Administrators to Improve the Timeliness and Accuracy of New Voter Registrations