Draft paper, here
Enrijeta Shino and Daniel A. Smith, University of Florida
Might having additional opportunities to cast a ballot increase the likelihood that an individual turns out to vote? Scholars disagree over whether or not added electoral convenience bolsters voter turnout. Examining the effects of early in-person voting on public colleges and university campuses in Florida, we argue that turnout should increase when institutional barriers are lowered, as individuals have greater options to mobilize themselves, or be mobilized by others, to vote. Using individual-level administrative data and estimating a series of differences-in-differences (DD), differences-in-differences-in-differences (DDD), and coarsened exact matching (CEM) models, we estimate the causal effect of the expansion of early in-person voting on eight college campuses on voter turnout. We find that on-campus early voting increases turnout, especially among young voters.
Most recent draft available here.
According to the Mueller Report, Russian operatives were able to “gain access to the network of at least one Florida county government.”
Which one? And was it even a county Supervisor of Elections office?
According to Sun Sentinel, SOEs in Broward, Palm Beach, Miami-Dade all claim they weren’t hacked. Paul Lux, SOE of Okaloosa County and head of the Florida State Association of Supervisors of Elections, says he had “not heard from any county in Florida” that an elections office was compromised.
So, that only leaves 63 more SOEs to come clean….
Some keen observers have noted that in August during the 2018 campaign, Senator Bill Nelson visited with Taylor County SOE Dana Southerland, raising speculation that the small north Florida county may have been the one that may have been hacked in 2016. But Nelson’s visit could have just as easily been tied his effort to make sure the $19.2 million in federal dollars to help counties defend against cyberattacks in the 2018 election was being allocated. Indeed, according to news reports, Nelson had “met privately Wednesday with about a dozen elections officials from Florida’s smallest counties, where the need for more money is greatest.”
Certainly, there is no indication that voters in Taylor County had problems voting or having their votes count, according to its Conduct of Election report filed after the election. And my analysis of the vote histories in the 2016 election suggest no anomolous patters, either. Of the nearly 13k registered voters, over 73% turned out, with Republicans turning out at a higher rate than Democrats, and a majority of NPAs staying home. There were only 10 provisional ballots rejected (out of more than 7k cast early in-person and on Election Day), and only 16 VBM ballots rejected (out of roughly 2.5k cast). Again, nothing to raise major concerns.
So, it seems like the easiest way to get to the bottom of this mystery is to have reporters to continue to ask the other 63 SOEs if their systems were breached.
On Tuesday, the Florida House Judiciary Committee proposed PCB CDJ 19-01, a cynical power grab by the majority party to crack down on the citizen initiative process. Over the past 20 years, Floridians, in a state dominated by Republican lawmakers, have consistently approved progressive ballot measures–from High Speed Rail, to Raising the Minimum Wage, to Fair Redistricting, to Medial Marijuana, to Felon Re-infranchisment. When fellow citizens place these statewide constitutional amendments on the ballot for public consumption, Florida voters consistently gobble them up.
Now Republican lawmakers want to crackdown on the initiative process itself, changing the rules of the game so as to stymie future efforts to have citizens approve statewide ballot issues the majority party can easily bury in the legislative process.
PCB CDJ 19-01 is not the only attack on the process of direct democracy in Florida this session. SJR 232 would require citizen-initiated constitutional amendments to pass with a 2/3rds supermajority, up from 60% (which, itself, was jacked up from a simple majority by a statewide referendum placed on the ballot by the Republican legislature in 2006).
This is all part of a coordinated attack on the initiative process, and not only in Florida (see what’s happening in other states in this Brennan Center piece). It’s not new (I wrote about similar efforts more than a decade ago); as it was then, it is clearly motivated by partisanship and control of the policy agenda.
So, it’s not rocket science as to why Republican-controlled legislatures try to change the rules of the game, curtailing the power of citizens to use the initiative process. Progressive statewide ballot measures often are approved in states where conservatives dominate the state legislature. In these states, Republican lawmakers aren’t used to, nor do they like, ceding the legislative agenda to the people. After all, in the first part, in many states they control state government precisely because they were able to successfully gerrymander legislative districts–drawing favorable districts to afford them a majority of seats in both legislative chambers, thus controlling the policy agenda.
Of course, direct democracy is no panacea for what ails our republic, and over the past 25 years I’ve written critically about the process. But as Woodrow Wilson, no fan of the initiative process himself, conceded in 1911 while on the presidential hustings, citizen lawmaking can serve as the “gun behind the door–for use only in case of an emergency, but a mighty good persuader, nevertheless.”
The passage of Amendment 4 in Florida in November 2018 was historic. Excluding convicted murderers and sexual offenders, the Voting Restoration Amendment automatically restores the voting rights of citizens with prior felony convictions who served their sentence (including probation, parole, and any fines, fees, or restitution).
Eligible ex-felons were permitted to register to vote starting on January 8, 2019. Some estimates placed the potential number of ex-felons who might register in the Sunshine State as high as 1.4 million people, or nearly one-tenth of the current registered voters in Florida. Scholars estimate that as many as one-in-four black men in Florida have been disenfranchised by a law that dates back to the state’s 1868 Florida Constitution.
In January, reporters flocked to the offices of the state’s 67 Supervisors of Elections to interview newly registering voters—including those locked out from the democratic process for decades or who had never experienced the franchise.
According to the Florida Secretary of State, more than 53,000 Floridians registered to vote in January 2019.
Although not all of the new registrants had a felony conviction, was the registration rate in January higher than expected?
Although the number of new registrants in January 2019 exceeded the number from December 2018, the uptick was likely not solely the result of a surge in ex-felons registering to vote. Indeed, compared to new registrations in previous years, the numbers are not dramatically higher–roughly 49,000 voters registered in January 2018; nearly 38,000 registered in in January 2017; and over 50,000 registered in January 2016. In all cases, the January numbers were greater than the previous December.
Perhaps one reason why we didn’t see a huge surge in new registrations was due to complications in the rollout of Amendment 4. Backers of the measure, including the ACLU of Florida, argue that the measure is self-implementing. But there continues to be confusion over how the verification of returning citizens should occur or how murder or sex offender should be defined. A Senate Criminal Justice Committee legislative hearing in January revealed numerous discrepancies in the verification process.
But others have not been so lucky.
After scouring news reports, we identified 61 individuals in January who self-identified as former felons who were registering to vote.
Some of these returning citizens, though, still have not been placed on the voter rolls.
Drawing on public records, we’ve identified more than 20 of the 61 self-identified returning citizens not on the books as of February 1. It’s possible that some moved out of Florida, died, or reported a nickname to reporters when they registered to vote. There are other possibilities, tragic and ironic, too.
It’s also possible that some applicants had missing information on their registration form. Florida requires an applicant’s name, address of legal residence, date of birth, checking the box affirming that the applicant is a citizen of the United States, and a current and valid Florida driver license number or number from a Florida identification card, or the last four digits of their Social Security number.
For returning citizens to leave required information off a form would be odd, as reporters documented how Supervisors and voting rights advocates oversaw the process. And even if missing information caused a delay in processing the applications, according to the Florida Statutes, “[t]he registration date for a valid initial voter registration application that has been hand delivered is the date that the application is received by a driver license office, a voter registration agency, an armed forces recruitment office, the division, or the office of any supervisor in the state.”
The confusion over allowing returning citizens to register to vote is disconcerting. Although our sample of self-identified ex-felons is small and non-random, our findings may portend further complications for this historically marginalized population to be able to successfully register to vote.
Why might all this matter? To be eligible to vote in Florida, one must be registered at least 29 days prior to Election Day. It is possible that some of our returning citizens may have their franchise jeopardized in upcoming local elections.
Let’s hope—with guidance from the state legislature—that our local Supervisors of Elections and the Florida Division of Elections can hammer out a fair process to assure that all returning citizens who register to vote have their applications processed in a timely and proper manner.
Returning citizens and the more than 5 million Floridians who supported Amendment 4 last November are counting on it.
This opinion piece was written by my three University of Florida Political Science Junior Fellows, Karla Cejas, Sydney ElDeiry, Max Matheu. They are part of the UF Election Science team lead by Professor Michael McDonald (aka, @electproject) and me.